Every election is different. And yet, every election in India poses a different, tough test for every political party. Remarkably, no psephologist has ever been able to discover a perfect formula to predict polls. Neither emotive issues nor a slew of welfare programmes are enough by themselves to swing the sentiment. When the people decide positively, even a not-so-efficient government can get another mandate; when the popular mood is negative, a clean, efficient and decisive government may face a loss.
Things are even more complex in the ensuing Jammu and Kashmir elections, as this would be the first in the region since the abrogation of Article 370 and the carving out of a new Union territory.
During the last five years, J&K has seen transformative changes in its legal, social and economic landscape. The abrogation of Article 370 was a watershed moment in the history of this paradise on Earth. Now, after five years, having invested all the energy and resources at its command, the Centre is looking forward to installing a UT government in order to further consolidate the gains made in J&K’s integration with the rest of India. Understandably, the BJP is working overtime to ensure the project’s success.
If one analyses the reasons behind the BJP’s confidence, at least five key factors stand out. These are about the Centre and the UT administration’s shared success in curbing terrorism and militancy, uplifting marginalised communities, boosting the region’s economy and infrastructure, promoting tourism, and finally, reviving its cultural heritage.
The notable achievements start with the successful curbing of terrorism and militancy after the abrogation of Article 370. The fear and distress once faced by civilians have been substantially alleviated. By January 2023, over 750 militants were neutralised through the Indian armed forces’ counterinsurgency efforts. Local recruitment into militant groups has seen a significant drop, leading to decreased attacks on civilians despite the recent attempts from across the international border.
The once-common incidents of stone-pelting at the authorities have virtually disappeared, reflecting not only the region’s enhanced security and stability, but also the beginning of an era of aspirations.
The removal of Article 370 has also extended rights to marginalised groups like refugees from Pakistan and the Valmiki community, who were previously denied some basic citizenship benefits. These communities, numbering over 20,000 families, comprise Hindus and Sikhs who had come over from the erstwhile West Punjab (in Pakistan) after the partition in 1947. They settled mainly in the border areas of Jammu. The new domicile rules grant them access to healthcare, property rights, government jobs and voting rights in the local elections.
This inclusivity has led to socio-economic improvements, allowing these communities to integrate more thoroughly into the region’s development framework. J&K is perhaps the only region that has ensured 100 percent coverage of the eligible beneficiaries for over 17 welfare schemes such as Ayushman Bharat and Jal Jeevan Mission. This is a remarkable feat achieved by the administration under the leadership of Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha.
Another aspect that has transformed the region is a booming economy and flourishing Infrastructure. The Chenab bridge, the world’s highest arched railway bridge that is located in the Reasi district of Jammu, is perhaps the finest example of this. Projects like the Jammu Ring Road and Zojila tunnel have also improved connectivity, enhancing trade and mobility within the region. In a historic feat, the first electric train service in the valley was flagged off between Sagaldan and Baramulla by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in January 2024.
To encourage new investments, a financial outlay of Rs 28,400 crore under the New Central Sector Scheme was provided to J&K for industrial development. This move has presented the UT as an investor-friendly destination and attracted new businesses, increasing local employment opportunities for the youth.
To cite an example, the UT has received investments worth Rs 2,153 crore during 2022-23, the highest in the last decade. With the Centre’s emphasis on entrepreneurship and skill development through programmes like Mission Youth and the creation of industrial estates, the region’s youth—about 69 percent of the total population below the age of 35—are becoming active contributors to its economic resurgence.
Given the decline in militancy due to improved infrastructure and enhanced security, the tourism sector, a key driver of the region’s economy, has seen a resurgence. Iconic destinations such as Gulmarg, Srinagar and Patnitop have been revitalised with new facilities and festivals, drawing both domestic and international tourists.
Initiatives like film tourism have also helped boost J&K’s profile. In 2021, the J&K administration introduced the New Jammu and Kashmir Film Policy, rejuvenating the industry’s association with the region. Over 50 films were shot in 2023 alone. Cinema halls reopened for the first time in decades in 2021. Srinagar got its first multiplex in 2022, followed by the opening of new theatres in Pulwama, Shopian, Baramulla and Handwara.
As for the preservation of J&K’s rich cultural heritage, concerted efforts have been made to adopt a comprehensive approach towards the promotion of traditional crafts like Pashmina weaving, the revival of Sufi traditions, and the restoration of significant historical monuments. There has been a renewed focus on restoring and reopening Hindu temples that had either been in ruins or closed during the years of turmoil, further enhancing the region's diverse cultural fabric. Noteworthy examples include the reconstruction of the Maa Sharda temple in Kupwara, restoration of the iconic Raghunath temple in Jammu, and the reopening of the Sheetal Nath temple in Srinagar and Bhagwati temple in Anantnag.
Understandably, the poll verdict will merit analyses of every kind. Peace versus militancy, terrorism and secessionism is not the only subject that would influence voters. A new J&K is preparing to see further advancement, equality of opportunities, development and, above all, hope. On August 5, 2019, the nation abrogated Article 370. Now, on October 5, J&K is all set to abrogate despair and deprivation.
Vinay Sahasrabuddhe
Senior BJP leader
(Views are personal)