Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has just concluded his fourth visit to Sri Lanka, precisely two years after the Indian Ocean island went bankrupt and its economy collapsed like a pack of cards.
As the economic crisis unfolded in April 2022, the worst ever in post-independence Sri Lanka, Delhi stepped in quickly to assist Colombo with financial and humanitarian assistance. Promptly, it provided $4 billion in financial aid and, a year later, supported the $3 billion IMF bailout program for Sri Lanka.
Two years later, on April 5, the visiting leader announced the completion of debt restructuring with Sri Lanka at significantly low interest rates, emphasising India’s position as Colombo’s ally. Sri Lanka owes nearly $1,400 million to both the Exim Bank of India and the State Bank of India. The timing of this announcement is noteworthy. Sri Lanka is again in a tailspin and is bracing itself for another hit on its fragile economy following US President Donald Trump imposing a 44% tariff on Sri Lankan goods, making it one of the most impacted countries.
During the three-day visit, which concluded on Sunday, Modi and Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake signed several bilateral agreements on energy cooperation, health, digitisation, and multi-sectoral assistance. They also virtually witnessed several joint projects launched, such as the controversial Sampur solar power plant, an agricultural warehouse in Dambulla, and the supply of solar rooftop systems for 5,000 religious institutions islandwide.
Thus, the Indian leader’s visit came at a critical time and holds geopolitical implications reflecting the complex political history of the two nations. Despite some murmurs of protests, Sri Lankans, by and large, are grateful to the Modi administration for the critical role it played in April 2022, and Dissanayake conferring the title Sri Lanka Mitra Vibhushana on Prime Minister Modi is an acknowledgement of India’s continued support to the neighbouring island.
Despite this recent history and the bonhomie in front of shutterbugs apart, both leaders have some repairing work to do. A trust deficit makes Sri Lankans view India with suspicion and question its motives. Not even the well-meaning and timely humanitarian assistance at a critical time and the consistent support has dulled the underlying mistrust of India’s wish to exercise greater influence over Sri Lanka. On the other hand, Colombo’s left-leaning new administration has a bitter and blood-soaked history with India. The main constituent of the NPP government, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), launched a second bloody insurgency in 1987-1989, demanding the withdrawal of Indian peacekeepers and pose the 13th Amendment to the Constitution, which resulted in the creation of provincial councils in Sri Lanka. The armed insurrection is considered the strongest expression of anti-India sentiments. The JVP has always viewed India through the prism of pursuing a geostrategic foothold on Sri Lanka, including strategic investments in the island. The arming and training of Tamil youth to eventually demand a separate homeland in the island’s north and east only added to the weight of this historical baggage. As much as Colombo finds it difficult to be genuinely friendly towards Delhi, the Indian administration, too, has to deal with the discomfort of trying to work with a government that has historically considered India to be expansionist and undermining the island’s interests, geographical, political and economic.
New Delhi is concerned about China’s growing influence on the island, which drives fears around maritime security and economic interest. The visit is also a gentle reminder of India’s critically beneficial role two years ago in helping resurrect the island economy, reinforces the idea of India’s importance in Sri Lankan affairs, and offers a counterbalance to other external influences.
For Sri Lanka, the visit held the promise of potential advancements in multiple sectors, including energy, defence, and the economy. It allows Sri Lanka an opportunity to explore more partnerships and develop Trincomalee as a regional energy hub. Some of Sri Lanka’s excessively protectionist attitudes may have hindered its potential to grow and access Indian markets. It also allows both countries to focus on mutual respect and cooperation and treat the apprehensions as modern states contributing to each other’s growth and advancement through equitable partnerships.
Delhi intends to counterbalance China’s expanding footprint in Sri Lanka and address its presence in the Indian Ocean through the massive investments made on the island. The visit is also a clear statement of India’s interest in deepening ties with Sri Lanka and not relinquishing its role as the South Asian superpower.
In recent years, India has contributed to multiple projects in Sri Lanka. However, some have run into strong opposition from local groups, particularly trade unions affiliated with the JVP. At the same time, India was seen as aggressively pursuing an economic program without considering the public sentiments. The public and civil society strongly opposed projects like the East Container Terminal deal and Gautam Adani’s controversial renewable energy project, eventually driving cancellation or withdrawal.
Despite the recent history of pushbacks, the visit, according to political analysts, offers a fresh opportunity for both countries to find ways to re-engage with each other in a transparent manner that earns public trust.
The just-concluded visit also reminds of the absence of permanent friends or enemies in politics. It may be ironic that a president who leads a political party that led violent protests demanding the withdrawal of Indian peacekeepers from the island accused the big neighbour of having a permanent policy of interventionist politics. For all intents and purposes, it may be a case of political prudence and maturity that caused President Dissanayake to confer the highest recognition accorded to a foreign head of state to Narendra Modi. Moving forward, strategic engagements that do not undermine the sovereignty of the smaller neighbour and let go of undue suspicions of the giant neighbour may allow the opportunity to rewrite the bilateral history of a new kind.
(Views are personal)
(dilrukshi@cir.lk)
(dilrukshihandunnetti@gmail.com)
Dilrukshi Handunnetti | Award-winning journalist and lawyer; founder and director of the Colombo-based Center for Investigative Reporting (CIR)