Today, Sri Lanka is electing members to 341 local bodies across the country, including 29 municipal councils, 36 urban councils and 276 pradeshiya sabhas. True to pattern, the electoral outcome is highly likely to be pro-incumbency, though showing a dent in the ruling bloc’s popularity.
The National People’s Power (NPP) alliance has reasons to worry about a loss of support just five months after securing a history-making super-majority at the November parliamentary elections. While no government can retain that first flush of electoral approval, the government has cause for concern. The increasing public disenchantment is so palpable that President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, while addressing the NPP’s May Day rally in Colombo, appealed to the people and trade unions for more time to deliver on electoral promises.
The government is also being challenged for its lack of statecraft and diplomacy, while the people continue to shoulder increased burdens following the economic collapse in mid-2022. The NPP’s electoral sweep was fuelled by public expectations that are rather difficult to meet. In the pursuit of power, the NPP, unfortunately, made promises it cannot help and had no intentions to keep.
Post 2022, the people do understand that keeping the island’s economy afloat calls for a massive effort. But the NPP sometimes made light of the extent of the economic abyss, blaming successive governments of economic mismanagement and boasting of its own ability to raise funds through foreign direct investments and expat donations. But the people see no plan of action.
The bitter truth is Sri Lanka needs to take strong and painful measures towards economic recovery. The government is under pressure to revise electricity tariffs as per the International Monetary Fund (IMF) guidelines. Sri Lanka also cannot continuously rely on IMF’s lifelines that help to only put a plaster on an ailing economy. It requires full renewal and new strategic investments.
Instead, in the run-up to both the presidential and parliamentary polls, politicians boasted about securing funds from wealthy party supporters to pump billions of dollars to write off debt. While politicians are known for such rhetoric, the flippancy and blatant lying when the country is experiencing its worst low since independence is unforgivable. It is the ultimate insult to a nation that severed its previous voting patterns to elect the political outlier.
Let’s look at the action so far. The new administration, known for its anti-India sentiments, now must navigate some of its historical baggage when dealing with the regional economic power. The government accorded a warm welcome to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi this April, and President Dissanayake acknowledged India’s continued support, particularly during the economic collapse, by according him the highest civilian honour, Mitra Vibhushana, and inked 10 bilateral agreements (the details of which are not known to the Sri Lankan public), including a geo-strategically significant defence agreement formalising years of bilateral cooperation.
For all the bonhomie, and Colombo’s apparent wish to create a good impression and mend relations, the focus remained on history and culture, but not on economic cooperation. Sri Lanka needs to navigate its past mistrust, especially when the US seeks to impose a 44 percent tariff on Sri Lankan exports, the highest on a South Asian nation. It would be prudent for Colombo to cautiously explore entry into the Indian market.
Sri Lanka cannot afford to allow historical mistrust to influence decisions to the extent that Colombo fears bilateral economic relations that could benefit the island’s flagging economy, if pursued with care. Instead of flippant statements by rookie NPP legislators who offer comic relief with comments such as the US tariff not being a reaction to Sri Lanka having a left-leaning government, or the shameless claim that Donald Trump announced the 90-day pause following a request from Colombo. The government must take serious steps to address economic issues if it were to dredge the island from an inevitable economic collapse yet again.
On the other hand, the government has tried to woo northern voters, building on the cautious optimism they showed in the November polls, placing their trust yet again on the south to deliver. It has not been easy for many Sri Lankans to choose the former radical political group to lead their fate. The economic collapse, the mismanagement by successive governments, and rampant bribery swayed the vote in NPP’s favour. But that does not mean the voters can be taken for granted.
The northern and eastern votes were an expression of optimism tinged with pragmatic expectations of having their longstanding grievances addressed, coupled with more development and opportunities. In five months, the government has not pursued reconciliation, or addressed their resentments with seriousness. These voters clearly linked their support to the hope of policy reforms. On that front, be it in the north or the south, the government has not delivered.
It’s unfortunate when the administration does not see the nexus between economic support and policy. For example, the visiting European Union delegation that reviewed trade concessions to Colombo has raised the issue of the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA), a draconian law used more as a tool of oppression than to counter terror. The EU granted the Generalised Scheme of Preferences Plus in 2004 to a tsunami-hit Sri Lanka. The visiting delegation inquired about the possibility of a moratorium until the PTA is replaced by another anti-terror law; but the questions around the rule of law went largely unaddressed.
As the country goes to the polls, the people may consider that, fundamentally, there is little difference between the predecessors and the incumbent government. They are finding an increasingly arrogant, quick-on-the-rhetoric but slow-on-the-delivery kind of administration. It will be soon too late to stem the flood of disenchantment that may take the form of political dissent.
Statecraft is not for the faint-hearted. This is why today’s vote is a critical test for the NPP. Just the way people bestow power, they also can withdraw it.
Dilrukshi Handunnetti
Award-winning journalist and lawyer; founder and director of the Colombo-based Center for Investigative Reporting
(Views are personal)
(dilrukshihandunnetti@gmail.com)