It’s only after two weeks of the terrible tragedy at Pahalgam that I am getting this opportunity to pen my thoughts for our readers here. Since I have a deep connect with the understanding of the dynamics of J&K, I wish to keep this article generic, to fit in as many thoughts and ideas as is possible without being restricted to just a few issues for analysis.
By now, the National Investigation Agency has done its initial probe and clearly established Pakistan’s complicity with the Pahalgam massacre. It was at the behest of the deep state, comprising in this case the Pakistan Army, the Inter-Services Intelligence and the leadership of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) that it was carried out.
It’s important for readers to know why the deep state did it. There were enough reasons. The first is the outrageous perception that it was India which proxied the Baloch Liberation Army to execute the hijack of the Jaffar Express, which saw the death of a large number of Pakistan Army soldiers. Pahalgam was a revenge act for that presumption because it deeply hurt the already-eroded image of General Asim Munir, Pakistan’s army chief.
Second, the potential of Pakistan having a control over the situation in J&K as a stakeholder was fast weathering. A number of encounters in the Pir Panjal region could not achieve what a big act in Kashmir could.
Third, the nature of targeting seems to have borne the stamp of religious hatred, a quality well exhibited by Gen Munir during his hate speech delivered to a section of Pakistan’s diaspora at a special session just a few weeks ago. The intent behind the attack was obvious: to instigate a deep communal divide in India, leading to uncontrollable turbulence, and to tell the world and the Kashmiris that Pakistan’s Kashmir narrative was still alive.
Fourth, for the LeT and its euphemism, The Resistance Front (TRF), the idea of a mass murder on the lines of the October 7 attack by Hamas in Gaza was a model they wished to adopt. It’s well known that some Hamas operatives visited Pakistan in recent months and had meetings with LeT and the Pakistan Army. ‘Copycat terrorism’ is not unknown. Terror groups within Pakistan have adopted methods executed by other groups on several instances.
It should be known that the TRF may have carried out recce of several such areas in Kashmir, but was probably unwilling to carry out a risky action in the heart of Kashmir. The Tulip Garden below Zabarwan hills could have been a potential target because of the huge concentration of tourists, but was probably negated on grounds of early response potential of the security forces, the possibility of ‘live capture’ of one of the perpetrators on lines of Ajmal Kasab of 26/11, and the lack of time to do religious profiling of tourists into Hindus and Muslims before executing the killings.
Pahalgam, on the other hand, offered a far more ‘secure’ environment for a terrorist action, being at a limb and having massive forest cover from the Kishtwar range. It has a history, too—in 1995, the Al Firan terror group kidnapped five foreign tourists (the only other time tourists have been deliberately harmed in Kashmir) from Pahalgam, and took them to the Warwan valley that lies on the east of the Kishtwar range, before beheading at least one of them.
Post Pahalgam, India has responded with expected anger and rage. However, by and large, the people did not play into the Pakistani strategy. There were some unfortunate but isolated cases of harassment of Kashmiri students. Unknowingly, the deep state of Pakistan may have inspired a generation of Indians to push back in their own special way. Knowing that Kashmir’s economy is bound to suffer from the tourist exodus and the unlikelihood of anything that could be called a tourist season this year, a number of younger people seem to be taking the lead to ensure they go back to Kashmir to enjoy the season and put money back in the hands of the people there.
The people’s will is going to be demonstrated when thousands of devotees chant ‘Bumbum Bhole’ as they progress on the 48-km route of the Sri Amarnath yatra from Pahalgam to the holy cave of Lord Siva. The Kashmiri people have already demonstrated their revulsion for the Pahalgam terrorist act through shows of solidarity with the rest of India. They must further do that by ensuring their traditional support to the Sri Amarnath yatra, just two months away.
What is India going to do about the Pahalgam attack, the loss of precious lives and the public sentiment which is baying for action on Pakistan? The Line of Control has come alive for the first time since February 25, 2021, but that is a sign of Pakistan’s nervousness and the hope that India could be stopped just by responding there.
However, with Pahalgam, Pakistan has crossed the rubicon in a most irrational way. It perhaps expects that India may not respond, or that the nuclear overhang is sufficient to deter it. It’s surprising that the Pakistan Army, which labels itself as professional, has not been able to war-game the potential Indian response and the consequences for Pakistan. If it expects a one-off low-intensity military action, it’s got it all wrong. India’s mood and the rage within can subsume the entire Pakistani nation.
The decisions of the Cabinet Committee on Security relating a slew of non-kinetic measures followed by the meetings of the prime minister and the raksha mantri with the service chiefs and the chief of defence staff have clearly projected India’s intent, which expectedly must reveal no timelines. Pakistan has already deployed its reserve formations and, with an Afghan Taliban-threatened western border, it clearly is short of options.
India must explore multiple non-kinetic measures like cyber disruption or economic sanctions on specific entities linked to terror funding, even as it ratchets up the military calibration. The discussion of the kinetic options must remain outside the scope of all analysts. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty 1960 is likely to cause much more harm to Pakistan than what was initially believed.
Any further Indian response should aim to deter future acts, strengthen internal resilience and build global consensus against Pakistan-sponsored terrorism on a permanent basis.
(Views are personal)
Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)
Former Commander, Srinagar-based 15 Corps;
Chancellor, Central University of Kashmir
(atahasnain@gmail.com)