Bullets are bullish. The adage that war fills coffers is finally ringing true for India as the conflict in Ukraine is poised to enter its fourth year in less than three months.
A single sentence in the ‘outcome documents’ released half-way through Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India on December 5 is pregnant with bullish possibilities. The description of this particular outcome hides more than it reveals—a memorandum of understanding that “entails cooperation in various sectors of maritime domain such as shipping, ports, joint mineral exploration, research and development”.
Two weeks before Putin’s arrival in New Delhi, a visit to Goa by Nikolai Patrushev, chairman of Russia’s Maritime Board, prepared the ground for what augurs to be the biggest military-industrial project to emerge from the 23rd annual India-Russia summit this month. The Maritime Board has identified Goa Shipyard as the base for production of frigates, corvettes, anti-mine and landing vessels as well as ice-breakers. Russia has also proposed continued production of Project 1135.6 class ships in Goa based on upgraded designs and state-of-the-art technology. Two such ships, Triput and Tavasya, based on Russian models, were launched for the Indian Navy in July last year and March this year, respectively.
On November 20, the Russian foreign ministry’s readout on Patrushev’s visit quoted him as saying, “Our countries can jointly build up their own fleets, strengthen cooperation between them, establish robust and sanctions-resistant maritime logistics, and develop marine science and technology.” The crux of the statement originated from grievances by head honchos of Goa Shipyard about delays in “material supply obligations” for collaborative naval projects with Russia. Both sides agreed that these challenges were because of “extraordinary global circumstances”—a euphemism for the war in Ukraine and supply chain disruptions.
The current challenge on the strategic and commercial horizons for Russia’s thriving shipbuilding sector is the Ukraine conflict. Midway through the war, Franco-British missiles supplied to Ukraine penetrated the defences of Russia’s Black Sea fleet headquarters in Sevastopol, which was part of Ukraine until 2014. Major shipyards in Crimea have been affected by sanctions on supply of German engines and disruptions in getting ancillaries such as turbines from Ukraine.
If Goa Shipyard and Mormugao port become hubs for the activities of Russia’s Maritime Board, ships could be built in Goa for Russia to at least partly compensate for production stoppages along the Black Sea, which is vulnerable to attacks from Ukraine. Patrushev was understandably guarded in his open meetings on Goa’s maritime infrastructure. “The enterprise is subordinate to India’s ministry of defence due to its military orientation, but we have very good prospects for cooperation,” the authorised English translation of Patrushev’s remarks said.
The annual summit turned a new page in India-Russia engagement, which is best described as familial diplomacy. Patrushev, who has been by Putin’s side as one of his most trusted aides since he became prime minister in 1999 and later president, is said to have an excellent chemistry with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The two men met every time Patrushev came to India as secretary of Russia’s Security Council, the equivalent of a national security adviser.
In late September, as the groundwork for Putin’s visit was under way, another Patrushev arrived in India—Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev. He is Nikolai’s son and was Russia’s agriculture minister for six years before his promotion as deputy prime minister in charge of agriculture.
During and after the visit, he initiated efforts to increase the market share of Indian shrimp products in Russia. The landed prices of Indian shrimp products in their biggest market, the US, have increased by 58 percent, thanks to the steep tariffs supplemented by anti-dumping duties. Russia’s mitigation efforts would be critical. In return, Dmitry wants India to buy more Russian fertiliser. Going beyond this buyer-seller arrangement, Modi and Putin discussed the establishment of joint ventures in fertiliser.
Dmitry is a rising star in the Russian government. When he was only 32, the double doctorate degree-holder in business management was made chairman of the Russian Agricultural Bank. He made it the country’s fourth largest bank. Modi is courting Dmitry because he is the most India-friendly among the new generation of Russian politicians, whom Putin promoted in a reshuffle a week after he began his fifth term as president in May 2024. If the Kremlin grapevine is to be believed, Dmitry could one day succeed Putin as Head of State when the latter decides to retire.
Another visionary outcome of the summit was an MoU enabling Russia to “train specialists for Indian ships operating in polar waters”. The memorandum remained understated amid all the noise in public discourse about the absence of defence deals with Russia and declining oil purchases. India has so far conducted 15 successful expeditions to the Arctic, the Rajya Sabha was told during this year’s budget session. The government unveiled a comprehensive Arctic Policy three years ago. Its framework—titled ‘India and the Arctic: Building a Partnership for Sustainable Development’—is overseen by an empowered inter-ministerial group. Russia, with its large-scale involvement in the Arctic, is the most important external power that is critical to India’s efforts on what’s a new frontier for the country.
Patrushev Senior held extensive discussions at the National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research in Goa in the run-up to Putin’s visit, which paved the way for the MoU on equipping India for enhanced presence in polar waters. The Arctic has hydrocarbon resources beyond imagination. Dmitry’s younger sibling, Andrey, has a whip hand on these resources. A senior gas company executive until recently, Andrey is now CEO of Russia’s Arctic Initiatives Centre.
The road of India-Russia relations in the post-Putin generation will run through the Patrushev household, and India is sensitive to it. Need one say more about familial diplomacy with Moscow?
K P Nayar | Strategic analyst
(Views are personal)