Trump’s MAGA viz. Modi’s Vishwaguru

The period 2020–24 was a no-win, no-loss one for India. Trump 2024–28 will be duel time for India and the US.
In this photo from Sept. 22, 2019, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Donald Trump shake hands after introductions during the "Howdi Modi" event in Houston.
In this photo from Sept. 22, 2019, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Donald Trump shake hands after introductions during the "Howdi Modi" event in Houston.FILE | AP
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The hemispheres of global politics are divided by a guild of alliances that are a salmagundi of nationalist interests. America First and Viksit Bharat are two examples. This week, when the 78-year-old Donald Trump moves into the White House for the second time—after bucking the impossible odds of scandal, impeachment and criminal conviction, just a few months after Narendra Modi 3.0 happened—four years of unpredictable U-turns and conflict of ideologies will again be par for the course.

Sometimes, diplomacy is dinner by other means and humble pie is often served. India’s diplomat turned semi-politician, foreign minister S Jaishankar, will break bread at Trump’s inauguration feast. On the new geopolitical menu, the minister will have to read between the lines of the world’s most powerful leader’s speech. Trump will be taking his victory lap a phrase farther—Make America Great Again and Again or MAGAA.

In the other hemisphere, Modi’s mission is to make Bharat an economic, social and cultural Vishwaguru. America is a global strategic and economic power. But after Modi’s ascension, India’s international bourne has shifted. More assertive and unwilling to surrender its legitimate place at the global high table, Modi’s Bharat engages in diplomatic doublespeak to be flexibly aggressive. To paraphrase the present populist paradigm, ‘there are no permanent friends or enemies, only permanent ambition’.

Trump is the anarchic alchemist of contradictions: an anti-elitist elite buoyed by redneck support and oligarchs’ camaraderie. To untie the Gordian knot of his thought, Indian diplomats, foreign policy experts and corporate leaders with US establishment ties have been twisting and trysting in India and the US. Trump and his advisors are bent on dismantling Washington’s globalist, democratic edifice. American and Indian diplomats have been crisscrossing the Pacific to firm up a roadmap for mutual engagement.

Trump’s unpredictability is a cross both bear—an elusive evanescence of volatile promises and perceptions. This poses significant risks to domestic and international stability. The Indian establishment hopes to revive past Modi-Trump bonhomie. The two have met thrice in the past. Their chemistry led world leaders to believe they were besties and would together push a common bilateral agenda at international forums.

During Trump 1.0, events like ‘Howdy Modi’ in Houston and ‘Namaste Trump’ in Ahmedabad signalled a global bromance, with India becoming one of the strongest US allies. Trump lost in 2020, and with it Modi lost a ‘friend in the White House’. However, Modi didn’t let the opportunity pass to rebuild the relationship.

Within hours of the official declaration of Trump’s victory, Modi was one of the first international leaders to make a congratulatory call. He posted on X: “As you build on the successes of your previous term, I look forward to renewing our collaboration to further strengthen the India-US Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership. Together, let’s work for the betterment of our people and to promote global peace, stability and prosperity.”

Easier said than done. Since 2016, Trump has been crowing about protecting the material and cultural rights of Americans. From motorcycles to dollars, he is unwavering about what makes America great. From 2016 onwards, MAGA is Trump’s primary project, similar to Modi’s Viksit Bharat. Taking a cue from Barack Obama’s slogan of “Yes, we can”, the Don vowed “Trump will fix it”.

As Jaishankar digs into his asparagus at the inaugural function, his worry will be, “Will Trump fix India?” Will he fix the limits of visas to Indian students? Trump has hinted that fewer students will get visas to go to US universities, even if they pony up billions. Will he repeat his demand to lower tariffs on Harley-Davidson bikes? Will he push India to stay away from China and Russia?

Trump’s first term was marked by an America First policy that was otherspeak for protectionism. He called India the ‘tariff king’. In 2019, his administration withdrew the generalized system of preferences, accusing India of unfair trade practices. In 2020, Trump snapped, “India charges very high tariffs. We want a reciprocal tax. So, if India is charging us something, we charge them the same thing.” Trump 2.0 could walk the talk.

India’s collaborative search for a dollar alternative hasn’t amused the president-elect. The shonky septuagenarian is particularly suspicious about BRIC’s economic agenda. He suspects India is a sleeping partner in the Junk the Dollar putsch. Two weeks after Trump was declared winner, he warned BRICS about its currency calculus. He wrote on X: “We require a commitment... that they will neither create a new BRICS currency, nor back any other currency to replace the mighty US dollar, or they will face 100 percent tariffs.” While Brazil, China, Russia and South Africa mostly ignored the threat, Jaishankar clarified at an international summit, “I am not exactly sure what was the trigger for it, but we’ve always said that India has never been for de-dollarisation. Right now, there is no proposal to have a BRICS currency.”

Trump was, basically, telling India to deal with America independent of other countries, or face the consequences. Since Trump has no confusion concerning convictions, India needs an innovative diplomatic strategy to deal with his policy fickleness. The line between delusion and illusion is thin. Ever the diplomatic dualist, Trump has also proposed to place high-profile persons of Indian origin in key positions to make it easy for India to jaw-jaw: Tulsi Gabbard for director of national intelligence, Vivek Ramaswamy to co-lead the new department of government efficiency, Kash Patel to head the FBI, Jay Bhattacharya to manage health and Sriram Krishnan will be the AI tsar. Here’s a point to ponder: they may have Indian names and pedigree, but are uncompromisingly Americans first.

The major threat to Indian democratic equity comes from the new nexus between oligarchs and politicians who will call the shots. Trump, a billionaire himself, has lassoed magnates to be political and administrative compeers. Elon Musk acting as Trump’s mentor and manager has generated memes showing Musk as the real POTUS. A Croesus constellation of Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos and Tim Cook, and Indian-origin heads of various multinationals could be the wingmen for Team Trump to wrest the best deals from India. These mega money minters enjoy the status of most-favoured individuals in the Indian establishment, with permanent and free access to all top leaders and businessmen.

The period 2020-24 was a no-win-no-loss one for India. Trump 2024-28 will be duel time for India and the US. Four years ago, Modi held Trump’s hand and declared “Agli baar, Trump sarkar!” Whether that hand becomes a fist, or Modi holds the trump card will decide how South Asia engages with America First.

Prabhu chawla

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com

Follow him on X @PrabhuChawla

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