The downside of Indian federalism is multiple personality disorder. In a civic body election, voters high-five the local government’s ideology if it is development- and security-minded like Adityanath’s. In a state ballot, they assert their regional, cultural and caste chutzpah. The balloting bromide again changes at the national level, where people vote first as Indians, and since 2014, as Hindu Indians. Such a legislative quantum theory can be unsettling for a single personality order like the BJP, when it loses states. Going by 2023 voting trends, next year could be the year of federal fanboys and changing the settings on the dynasty remote control to a proxy political VPN.
Sticking the neck out is the collateral risk of being a political columnist. What better chopping block is there than elections? The political wind smells bad for the BJP in the upcoming battles for Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. Its Karnataka debacle was because of abysmal governance, corruption and defection politics. Money is life oxygen for a party; therefore, control of states is imperative. Money is the reason why AAP honchos are in jail, and investigative agencies are digging up the political backyards of Opposition leaders.
The irony that corruption cases mysteriously do a Nirma, when one of them defect—or worse, that the ED or CBI will never go near a lord muck of the ruling party—is not lost on voters. In the marriage of voter and party, corruption is the jezebel. Indians accept corruption as a necessary evil, as they do GST and traffic lights, but politicians can ignore this nonchalance only at their peril: nobody likes a 40 percent dressed-up hussy in the family puja room. Hindtuva didn’t work in Karnataka in spite of the anti-cow slaughter bill and hijab ban.
Since Muslims comprise only 12.91 percent of the population, it can be safely assumed that most Hindus in 135 constituencies didn’t panic about love jihad. The Muslim and Christian population in Madhya Pradesh is just 6.57 percent and 0.29 percent respectively; before defectors toppled Kamal Nath, most Hindus had voted for the Congress. Similarly, in spite of Hindus constituting 70.54 percent of West Bengal’s population, Bengali sub-nationalism trumped Hindu nationalism last year.
In 2014, Modi used technology to change the election paradigm, but his party couldn’t catch up in the states. Sticking my neck out, I would wager the Congress will do creditably in the upcoming state polls, even in Rajasthan. A few inches further more of my neck, Modi will bring the BJP a third term in 2024 because Indians will vote as Indians, since they are convinced that he has done the country proud internationally and made their life more comfortable. Godi media or not, no major corruption scandal like 3G or CWC has broken in the last nine years.
Besides, Rahul Gandhi can’t stand for prime minister until the court says so. Charles Darwin’s theory of evolution espouses the survival of the fittest, which is not about apes becoming men, but that only organisms that adapt successfully to their environment will survive and thrive. Charging in as the Vikas Purush, Modi changed the political environment with Mata and Mandir subsequently. Caught in the headlights, the Congress and its fellow travellers decided to become Modi wannabes. They invented soft Hindtuva as a discounted deal, since Hindus make up the majority of the electorate. By June 2024, a binary political structure could emerge with a strong federal and Central formation, which isn’t ideologically congruent. Soft Hindutva and responsible economic stewardship could be the double engine that takes Indian constitutional values forward. Just note that bandwagon has no reverse gear.
Ravi Shankar
ravi@newindianexpress.com