The turnaround of the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra has few parallels in political history and can only be compared with a legendary triumph in cricket. In June 1983, in a World Cup match against Zimbabwe, India was reeling at 17 for 5 when skipper Kapil Dev stepped in. At the end of the match, Kapil was unbeaten at 175 and India won the match scoring 266.
The BJP’s tally on its own, at 132, is more than twice that of the opposition, and the tally of Eknath Shinde Shiv Sena, at 57, is more than that of the three constituents of the Maha Vikas Aghadi. To appreciate the magnitude of the victory travel back in time. In the Lok Sabha polls in June 2024, the Mahayuti alliance was totally outwitted 30:17—translating to 127 and 153 in assembly segments—by the Maha Vikas Aghadi.
The Mahayuti alliance faced a huge challenge to rediscover their mojo, retool their product and relaunch the brand to woo back voters. The electoral landscape of Maharashtra across the six major regions is defined by a common context. Almost every segment of social and economic class is raging on grievances—from agitations for quotas to prices of essentials to unemployment and agricultural distress.
The foundation for the revival of fortunes was laid about 90 days before the polls. On August 17, the Shinde-led Mahayuti regime launched the Ladki Bahin (beloved sister) scheme promising cash transfer of Rs 1,500 a month—hiked to Rs 2,100, and to be doubled to Rs 3,000 when re-elected—to 22 million eligible women across the state. Unsurprisingly, women voter turnout surged on November 20 from 59 to 62 percent.
The Ladki Bahin scheme has been dubbed the X factor, or the algebraic concept of a single unknown. Fact is, the efficacy of X factor is known. Given that the idea has delivered in Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and elsewhere, there was no reason it would not deliver in Maharashtra. The idea has bailed out parties across states—including in Jharkhand, which deployed the Maiya Samman Yojana. Effectively, those at the bottom of the pyramid are willing to vote and encash what is offered here and now.
And Ladki Bahin was not the only sop unveiled by the Shinde regime. In the run-up to the polls, the government announced zero-bill electricity for farmers, free bus rides, a cash allowance of Rs 50 per cow for desi cows, increased salaries for madrasa teachers, Rs 10,000 to students, Rs 15,000 for farmers and other sops.
The question, this column observed last week, was whether the raft of populist sops—led by the Ladki Bahin cash transfer scheme—and the election management capabilities of the BJP-led alliance could counter the voter angst and anger. Turns out that the Mahayuti alliance leveraged its legendary election management capability in concert with the RSS to harvest returns from the sops.
Beyond mandates, the sops culture has fiscal implications. Already, Maharashtra has outstanding liabilities of over Rs 7.11 lakh crore, costing the state Rs 48,578 crore, or Rs 133 crore a day, in interest payments. Neighbouring Karnataka—a pioneer of such guarantees where the state spends Rs 65,000 crore on its five assured schemes—has outstanding liabilities of Rs 5.35 lakh crore and interest payments of over Rs 36,000 crore.
Cash transfer schemes for women are now prevalent in over 10 states—including in Karnataka, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Odisha and West Bengal. The schemes are estimated to cost the states between 3 and 11 percent of their revenues and add up to over Rs 2 lakh crore by some estimates. The combination of Aadhaar-based direct benefit transfers and the predictability of revenues accruing from GST collections has made it easy for the states to switch on schemes.
The expansion of electoral sops raises questions of systemic risks. There is the moral hazard that parties fail to address real issues and combat anti-incumbency sentiments with sops. There is also the question of sustainability of such expenditure. RBI data shows that the outstanding liability of states has shot up to Rs 83.32 lakh crore, up from Rs 74.96 lakh crore last year. State governments are ramping up revenue expenditure and shrinking allocation on critical sectors such as health and education.
There is no disputing that the sops—whether PM Kisan, PM Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana or Ladki Bahin—are much-needed salve for distressed sections of the society at the bottom of the income and social pyramid. The need for support is riveted by the confluence of agricultural distress, youth unemployment and rising cost of living. In a sense, the surge in electoral sops is propelled by existential challenges faced by struggling folks and by political parties facing outrage.
The circumstance—the nationalisation of costs and harvest of political benefits—calls for a review of the umbrella of welfare spending by the Union and state governments. Indeed, it is imperative that the 16th Finance Commission looks at the landscape of sops before submitting its recommendations. Ideally, the data should be provided annually in the budget or reported by the Niti Aayog. The Supreme Court, which is hearing a PIL on freebies, could call for the information. India’s taxpayers surely deserve to know what is being spent, on what, by whom.
Shankkar Aiyar
Author of The Gated Republic, Aadhaar: A Biometric History of India’s 12 Digit Revolution, and Accidental India
(shankkar.aiyar@gmail.com)
