Pakistan has never won a war against India, nor have its terror tactics delivered. Yet, it persists doing the same things over and over again. What Einstein defined as insanity is also the desperation of a state failed by its politicians, theologians and army. The tragic irony is riveting. Nations have an army, whereas in Pakistan the nation is hostage to the army.
Pakistan has been in delusion and denial for seven decades. In October 1947, it said “tribesmen” invaded Kashmir, only to be exposed by Sheikh Abdullah at the UN Security Council. In 1999, in Kargil it said the intruders were “insurgents”, a claim only to be pulped. The confessions of the Pak army chief validate its role. It denied its role in 26/11 Mumbai attacks till Ajmal Kasab was captured. It is unsurprising that Pakistan denies any role in the dastardly attack on 25 tourists and a Kashmiri pony handler who fought valiantly on April 22 in Pahalgam.
The question is why did Pakistan do what it did, and why now? The answer lies in the repositioning of India in the emerging global alliance being crafted by Donald J Trump’s three-pronged approach to reset geopolitics. America’s pivot to India has triggered concern in China. The response to the promise of MEGA, proposed by Narendra Modi during his meeting with Trump, is manifest—for instance, Apple’s ramp-up of production and shifting of output for US markets from China into India.
The Trump tariff agenda for China, unravelling in Switzerland this weekend, threatens its domination in global trade. On Thursday, Trump suggested that he saw an 80 percent tariff on China as appropriate. America is moving moving economic activity away from the world’s largest exporter.
China’s objective is to stall India—the momentum of growth and global interest. The attack in Pahalgam is littered with Chinese fingerprints and digital footprint. The terrorists used a Chinese Huawei satellite phone, navigation systems based on BeiDou, a Chinese satellite system owned by CNSA. They communicated with their handlers using encrypted Chinese apps. It is not the first time—investigations of earlier encounters show foreign terrorists were using Chinese equipment such as ‘Ultra Set‘.
The question is why Pakistan is doing China’s bidding. The answer is illuminated by history. Pakistan has been a failed state and, ergo, a client state for decades now. In the 1970s, it arranged the détente between the US and China for favours. In April 1971, even as East Pakistan was being butchered, Richard Nixon told Henry Kissinger in an infamous message, “Don’t squeeze Yahya.” It was a client state for the US then, and is now a client state for China.
The state of Pakistan’s economy—with over 25 trips in 35 years to the IMF for bailouts—underlines the client status. It has a credit rating of Caa2, signifying poor standing among lenders. GDP growth is 2.6 percent; inflation is at 23 percent. The debt of $130 billion accounts for 352 percent of its exports. China is currently the biggest lender, at $29 billion, followed by the World Bank, ADB and Saudi Arabia. Consider this: Bangladesh, separated from Pakistan in 1971, has a GDP of $437 billion and per capita income of $2,600, while Pakistan is at $337 billion and a per capita income of $1,500.
The cause of penury is the state of Pakistan’s politics. The Pak army, which has had a role in mentoring and minding terror outfits, has ruled Pakistan directly for over 31 years, and by proxy for much of the past 70+ years, is deeply unpopular. The leader of the party that won the most seats is in jail, some terrorists are under house arrest, and the coalition of six parties dubbed ‘mandate thieves’, led by Shehbaz Sharif, is tottering. The terror attack is seen as an instrument of distraction and rekindling rapidly-depleting national pride.
Pakistan’s use of terror as an instrument of state policy is vividly captured by images of state funerals accorded to terrorists. That it has been a harbour for terrorists was highlighted when Osama bin Laden was taken out yards from a military encampment. Its notoriety is chronicled in the UNSC 1267 list of terrorists and terror outfits. It has been on the ‘grey list‘ of the Financial Action Task Force for 9 years in the past two decades.
The rogue state has its supporters. Pakistan is an instrument in China’s aim of global domination—useful for proxy battles and critical for its expansionism, be it the Belt and Road Initiative or the economic corridor through Pakistan. Naturally, China has consistently blocked India’s attempts to designate Pakistani terrorists under the UNSC sanctions—Masood Azhar of Jaish-e-Mohammed in 2009, his deputy Abdul Rahman Makki, Abdul Rauf Azhar responsible for the Pathankot attack, Sajid Mir accused for 26/11, Talha Saeed, son of Hafiz Saeed and designated by the US Treasury department, and Shahid Mehmood, deputy chief of Lashkar-e-Toiba. Most recently, China blocked India’s move to designate LeT affiliate TRF, who claimed responsibility for Pahalgam, and backed Pakistan in blocking Baloch groups.
On Friday, the IMF granted Pakistan more money. India abstained, but the others who voted for it must reflect. How long will they and the world accommodate, even sanctify, Pakistan’s brazen conduct? The acquiescence questions their sincerity on tackling terrorism. As for India, it must divine answers to the question posed by China.
SHANKKAR AIYAR
Author of The Gated Republic, Aadhaar:
A Biometric History of India’s 12 Digit Revolution, and Accidental India
(shankkar.aiyar@gmail.com)