Oppn alliance could be heading for a point of no return in TN
Just a year ahead of the general elections, the alliance between the AIADMK and BJP has landed in hostile terrain in Tamil Nadu. While the pot has been boiling for some time, the latest trigger is the defection of a dozen second-rung leaders of the BJP to the Dravidian fold. The former chief minister, Edappadi K Palaniswami, technically the sole head of the AIADMK now, has been mum on the issue, but BJP state chief K Annamalai issued a threat reminding everyone of Newton’s third law of ‘equal and opposite reaction’, impelling many political observers to believe that the cracks in the alliance have widened beyond repair. While AIADMK is busy undertaking a SWOT analysis on the alliance and evaluating the potential outcome if it were to eject the BJP out, the onus of pulling the coalition back from the brink of collapse seems to have fallen on the broad shoulders of the saffron party. On the same day that BJP cadres irately burned pictures of EPS, Annamalai stated that there is no friction with the AIADMK.
After winning legal battles against ex-CM O Panneerselvam in the Supreme Court and the Madras High Court, EPS is slowly but decisively rebuilding the party to challenge DMK’s predominance post-MK Stalin’s coronation in May 2021. His recent strategies ensured that the alliance fielded a common candidate in the recently concluded Erode East bypoll, who polled a critical 44,000 votes against an anticipated DMK alliance sweep. This is despite the alliance leaders never sharing a stage while canvassing for the common candidate; the absence of camaraderie was palpable. The Election Commission of India’s diktat may have forced EPS to toe the ‘alliance’ line to ensure that the two-leaves symbol is not frozen as OPS, too, had staked a claim for it. On its part, the unsuccessful experiment to go solo while maintaining a friendly tie with AIADMK in the urban local body polls in February 2022 may have forced BJP to play second fiddle to the AIADMK’s plan. Finishing as the third-largest party with a paltry 5.4% vote share doesn’t help if you can’t win numbers.
The road ahead for the alliance is paved with multiple challenges. Many in the AIADMK believe that the BJP is a liability and that the alliance can do much better without having a truck with the national party. If they insist that the AIADMK sans the BJP can attract other smaller parties and disgruntled elements from the DMK, the BJP may be forced to go it solo again.