VIJAYAWADA: An above-normal southwest monsoon has been predicted for Andhra Pradesh, with an expected onset in the first week of June.
In 2023, the southwest monsoon was not only delayed but the State received 13 per cent less rainfall, ending up with 454.6 mm of rainfall against the normal 521.6 mm. Additionally, there were prolonged dry spells in August.
“It might not be the case this monsoon,” says India Meteorological Department (IMD) Amaravati director Stella, attributing the deficit rains in the previous monsoon to the El Niño effect. El Niño refers to a warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures, in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
According to the second Long Range Forecast for the Southwest Monsoon issued on Monday by the IMD, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is imminent, with ENSO-neutral favoured in April-June and May-July 2024.
La Niña may develop in June-August 2024 (49 per cent chance) or July-September (69 per cent chance). Most models indicate a transition to La Niña around July-September 2024. Many models indicate positive IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) conditions to develop during the 2024 monsoon season. The IOD is a climate pattern affecting the Indian Ocean. During a positive phase, warm waters are pushed to the western part of the Indian Ocean, while cold deep waters are brought up to the surface in the eastern Indian Ocean.
This pattern is reversed during the negative phase of the IOD.
“In a nutshell, we can say Andhra Pradesh will most likely have a favourable southwest monsoon,” Stella added. Lower tropospheric south-westerly/westerly winds will prevail over the State in the next five days, and conditions are favourable for further advancement of the monsoon.
Speaking to TNIE, Andhra Pradesh State Agriculture Mission vice-chairman MVS Nagi Reddy stated that the conditions seem to be favourable, and in places like Rayalaseema, farmers have already started preparing land for Kharif. “Last monsoon, farmers had a bad time. They now hope for uniform rains and not spells of heavy rains,” he said.