VISAKHAPATNAM: Favourable atmospheric conditions are developing for the further advance of the southwest monsoon over parts of the South Arabian Sea, Maldives, Kanyakumari as well as additional regions of the south and central Bay of Bengal, according to the latest update from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). This indicates the likelihood of an early onset of the southwest monsoon in Andhra Pradesh, possibly four to five days ahead of the usual date of June 4.
However, officials clarified that the monsoon’s arrival in Andhra Pradesh can only be confirmed after it sets in over Kerala. Typically, the monsoon reaches Kerala around June 1, with a standard deviation of seven days. This year, the IMD forecasts it may arrive as early as May 27. The official onset of the monsoon over the Indian mainland is marked by its arrival in Kerala.
“We are expecting an early onset over Kerala around May 27, with a model margin of plus or minus four days. Based on this, an early onset over Andhra Pradesh is also likely, provided there are no interruptions such as cyclonic circulations or other synoptic developments. We will have a clear confirmation in our upcoming extended range forecast, which will be issued by May 16,” Dr Sagili Karuna Sagar, Scientist at IMD Amaravati, told TNIE.
According to the Long Range Forecast (LRF) issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in April, Andhra Pradesh is expected to receive above-normal cumulative rainfall during the upcoming southwest monsoon season.
Last year, the monsoon arrived in state on June 2, two days ahead of the normal onset date. The state received a total of 629.2 mm of rainfall, significantly higher than the seasonal average of 521.6 mm.
The AP State Disaster Management Authority (APSDMA) has forecast varying weather conditions across the state over the next two days.
Moderate rainfall likely in a few districts today
Managing Director Ronanki Kurmanath said that while some areas may experience light to moderate rains accompanied by thunderstorms, others are likely to witness high temperatures and heatwave conditions. According to the forecast, on Thursday, scattered light to moderate rainfall with lightning is expected in Alluri Sitarama Raju, Parvathipuram Manyam, Srikakulam, Anakapalli,
Kakinada, East Godavari, and Eluru districts. Light rain with thunderstorms is also likely in several other districts. On Friday (May 16), similar weather conditions are expected in parts of Alluri Sitarama Raju, Konaseema, Nandyal, Kurnool, Anantapur, YSR Kadapa, Sri Sathya Sai, Annamayya, and Chittoor districts.
Severe heatwave conditions have been reported in Garugubilli mandal of Parvathipuram Manyam district. A total of 34 mandals across the state are likely to experience heatwave conditions, including 16 in Vizianagaram, 10 in Parvathipuram Manyam, and others in Srikakulam, Alluri Sitarama Raju, Kakinada, and East Godavari districts.
As of 5 pm on Wednesday, the highest recorded rainfall was in Jagilibonthu (Srikakulam) with 53.5 mm, followed by Rajolu with 49.2 mm and Srikakulam town with 47.2 mm. Other notable rainfall figures include 44.5 mm in Pullala (Eluru), 38.5 mm in LN Pet (Srikakulam), 35.7 mm in Amudalavalasa, 34.5 mm in Eluru, and 32.7 mm in Palakonda (Parvathipuram Manyam).
High temperatures were also recorded across various districts on Wednesday. Konakanamitla (Prakasam) and Manganellur (Tirupati) reported the highest of 42.8°C.