BENGALURU: The 4-1 victory in the by-polls to three Lok Sabha and two assembly seats has come as a big boost to coalition partners Congress and the JD(S) while it has come as a wake-up call for the BJP. Almost lost for words after the results, State BJP president B S Yeddyurappa attributed the victory of Congress-JD(S) combine to money power and misuse of government machinery.
Congress and JD(S) leaders who were on the defensive after the drubbing in the recent assembly elections which saw BJP emerge as the single largest party with 104 seats, have gained new vigour after the by-poll results.
“We will work out similar alliance for the 2019 Lok Sabha too. We will try to win all the 28 Lok Sabha seats in the state if we put up a united fight against BJP. We can stop Modi-Amit Shah run in Karnataka,” Chief Minister H D Kumaraswamy said immediately after the by-poll results. His father H D Deve Gowda, JD(S) supremo, sees the result as a trigger for him to play a bigger role at the national level to bring anti-BJP forces together. Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu is set to meet Gowda in Bengaluru on Thursday.
The magnitude of the victory of coalition partners, especially in Ballari and Jamkhandi, has carried a hint of upsetting political equations and electoral calculations ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha election if they maintain the same spirit of giving and take.
The Congress has snatched Ballari Lok Sabha seat from BJP after 15 years and the whopping margin of victory, 2.28 lakh votes, has befuddled even political analysts. Sriramulu had won it with a margin of 84,000 votes in 2014 and his sister J Shantha was the candidate this time against V S Ugrappa.
The victory in Ballari has further boosted the stature of district in-charge minister D K Shivakumar with a “man who can never fail” halo.
BJP has cause for concern in Yeddyurappa’s home turf Shivamogga too as his son B Y Raghavendra has won with a margin of just 52,000 votes, a huge fall from over 3.50 lakh votes notched by Yeddyurappa in the 2014 LS polls.
Though the party has suffered huge losses in Mandya Lok Sabha and Ramanagara assembly seats too, it can be played down as the BJP is yet to strike roots in the region.
In Ramanagara, it was a cakewalk for Chief Minister H D Kumaraswamy’s wife Anitha while in Mandya JD(S) candidate L R Shivarame Gowda won with a huge margin.In Jamkhandi assembly seat, the victory margin of Congress candidate Anand Nyamagouda soared to 40,000 this time from 3,000 in the assembly election just 6 months ago. The big defeats for BJP have come in its traditional stronghold of northern Karnataka, which has a strong presence of Lingayat community, the party’s core vote bank.
BJP which has set an ambitious target of winning 22 to 25 seats in the next Lok Sabha election in the state, could find the going tough if the rivals unite.
“Coalition partners have realised that they can humble BJP only when they combine their capacities. Result in Ballari has shown that they could accomplish even the toughest task if they show a spirit of giving and take. BJP’s calculations could go awry if the coalition partners carry the same spirit,’ opines Political analyst Prof. Harish Ramaswamy.
The by-poll results have also strengthened the bonding between Congress and JD(S) which could bring greater stability to the government. It is also expected to compel BJP to have a rethink on its plans to destabilise the government and also introspect on its own weaknesses, Ramaswamy said.
The poll strategy and campaign style of coalition partners and BJP were a total contrast. While Yeddyurappa concentrated heavily on Shivamogga Lok Sabha seat to ensure victory for his son, it was a one-man show of Sriramulu in Ballari to get his sister Shantha elected. The party put up a serious fight in Jamakhandi assembly seat too, but sans the thrust and vigour which is usually associated with BJP’s campaign style in the recent past.
In contrast, the entire star cast of Congress and J(S)--Siddaramaiah, D K Shivakumar, Dinesh Gundu Rao, H D Deve Gowda, H D Kumaraswamy -- camped in the battle zone fighting with “do or die’ spirit. Though the poll tie-up has not gone down well with the cadres at the grassroot level in many places, the result has proved that unity is inevitable to stop BJP, which till recently appeared to be riding the momentum. Coalition partners have scored victory in 4 of the 5 constituencies---3 Lok Sabah, 2 Assembly--seats where by-poll was held. BJP had to contend with a consolation win in Shivamogga Lok Sabha seat.
What worked for Congress?
Jamkhandi
Sympathy wave for Anand Nyamagouda
Lingayat voters returning to Congress
Quelling of internal disputes
Camping of G Parameshwara to ensure local leadership works
Heavy campaign deployment of all top Lingayat leaders by party
Ballari
‘No threat’ candidate
Internal competition among MLAs
The mobilisation of local leadership
Deliberate display of alliance unity
Anti-incumbency against BJP leaders
THE WINNERS ARE
LS SEATS
Ballari
V S Ugrappa (Cong)
Mandya
L R Shivara-megowda (JD-S)
Shivamogga
B Y Raghavendra (BJP)
ASSEMBLY SEATS
Jamkhandi
Anand Siddu Nyamagouda (Cong)
Ramanagara
Anitha Kumaraswamy (JD-S)