BENGALURU: Chief Minister BS Yediyurappa and top BJP leaders are exuding confidence of winning all 15 seats that will go to polls on December 5, but the state police intelligence department’s internal assessment points otherwise. According to the department’s assessment, as of now, the ruling BJP has an advantage in less than six seats.
State intelligence department directly reports to the CM and regularly briefs him about the situation. Sources in the BJP, however, said according to their internal assessment the party has an advantage in 10 seats.
With 105 members in the assembly, the party has to win at least 6 out of 15 seats to remain in power, considering RR Nagar and Maski constituencies are not going to the polls now and one independent MLA is supporting the BJP’s 105. According to party sources, BJP is confident of doing well in most segments in Bengaluru and North Karnataka region, while it seems to be working hard to improve its prospects in two assembly segments in Old Mysore region as well as in Hoskote, Chikkaballapur, Yeshwantpur in Bengaluru.
Even according to the Congress’ internal assessment, BJP has the edge in Shivajinagar, Mahalakshmi Layout, Gokak, Yellapur, Athani, KR Puram, Hirekerur and Kagwad and the Congress needs to workout counter strategies with just six days to go for the polls. Congress’s assessment says its candidates have an advantage in five segments. Congress leaders were not available for comment on why their assessments did not favour their own party.
The JDS internal assessment gives the BJP the edge in only four seats and two seats for itself — KR Pet in Mandya and Yeshwantpur in Bengaluru. In Rannebennur, both Congress and JDS assessments suggest that former speaker KB Koliwad has an advantage. A BJP internal assessment too points out that they may not win all 15, and they have a disadvantage in Hunsur and KR Pet.
Brand thinker Harish Bijoor said, “It is a mini assembly election, the complexity increases because of the two factors --defections and Maharashtra. There is one big missing element--dominant role played by PM Modi in the last assembly elections. It remains to be seen how local politics is able to float the party as high as it needs to.’’
Sources said senior leaders in all three parties constantly get updates from their local units and assess the situation on a regular basis to make appropriate changes in their campaign strategies. The AICC has deputed its central observers in all assembly segments, while the BJP has appointed its ministers and senior leaders as election in-charge in each of the 15 assembly segments.
Every assessment needs to be taken with a pinch of salt because no one has got it always right in the polls. Surveys and assessments change on a daily basis and only the final results will prove if they are right.