Contingency plan projects 2 lakh coronavirus cases in Karnataka  

0.15 per cent of population in Bengaluru, 0.11 per cent in rest of state may be infected; State capital may see over 47,000 positives

Published: 01st June 2020 04:09 AM  |   Last Updated: 01st June 2020 01:50 PM   |  A+A-

Doctors attend to patients at Victoria Hospital in Bengaluru

Doctors attend to patients at Victoria Hospital in Bengaluru, on Saturday | Shriram Bn

Express News Service

BENGALURU: The Karnataka government’s latest coronavirus contingency plan estimates that there could be 2 lakh corona patients in the state, which is much higher than the earlier projected figure of 87,196 cases. Resources will be mobilised as per these estimates, officials said. In Bengaluru, 0.15 per cent of the population will be infected, while in rest of the state, 0.11 per cent of the people will be carriers of the virus. In all, 0.14 per cent of the population in hotspots will have the infection, the contingency plan states.

Of them, 15% of positive cases will require hospitalisation and 5 per cent ICU admission in Bengaluru, hotspots and the rest of Karnataka. “The Department of Disaster Management has used the incidence of cases from four countries, which have comparable population connectivity, that are Italy, Iran, China and Spain. We chose to focus on these population centres, on the assumption that the introduction of COVID-19 was most likely to occur in international transportation hubs, and thus that these countries were most likely to be the focal points of initial COVID-19 transmission in the country,” the contingency plan reads.

“Based on the incidence of Covid-19 in Lombardi of Italy, where it was around 13,000 cases per ten million population, the projection matrix is formulated for our state. We have projected a little on the higher side for Bengaluru because of its population connectivity and density,” it adds. Bengaluru has the highest projection of coronavirus cases at 47,131 patients, followed by Mysuru at 13,172 patients and Belagavi with 12,587 cases. 

“Right now, we have only used 25 per cent of our existing capacity. We have to consider home quarantine and shifting of patients to private hospitals if the load on government hospitals increases. An entire hospital will not be reserved for Covid as there are other diseases to treat as well. But as cases rise, more beds will be dedicated for Covid patients and there will be a dedicated wing for it,” said Pankaj Kumar Pandey, Commissioner, Health and Family Welfare Department.

The contingency plan lists existing facilities that are ready, such as 20,000 beds available for positive cases, 528 fever clinics, 1,000 dedicated Covid hospitals, 10,27,821 N-95 masks supplied, 4,13,335 Personal Protective Equipment (PPEs) distributed and more. The escalation matrix to track down cases follows the order of fever clinics, quarantine centres, isolation centres and designated Covid hospitals. From fever clinics, a person without Covid symptoms will be sent home. Those with symptoms will be sent for swab collection and then to quarantine centres. If they test negative, they will be sent home and if positive, they will be sent to supervised isolation centres and then to a Covid hospital.


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