BENGALURU: Karnataka managed Covid infections relatively well in July, compared to states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Maharashtra, which witnessed a surge. However, two districts -- Dakshina Kannada and Kolar -- have recorded high mortality Moving Growth Rate (MGR), which experts say must be brought down in the coming weeks, to avert the third wave. MGR is the percentage expression of growth of the value during the period, over the percentage at the beginning of the period. Higher MGR indicates shorter doubling period or increase in daily cases or deaths.
According to analysis by Jeevan Raksha, an initiative of Proxima, a management consulting firm, Dakshina Kannada is seeing a higher number of positive cases in the past few days, even reporting a higher number than Bengaluru on Sunday. The 28-day mortality MGR (July 3-31) in Dakshina Kannada is at 15.3 per cent, while Kolar at at 16.9 per cent. Experts say it is imperative that each district maintains the 28-Day Moving Growth Rate below 10 per cent in the coming weeks, to avert the predicted third wave.
In July, Dakshina Kannada recorded around 1 lakh Covid cases, and saw 197 deaths, whereas Bengaluru Urban, with a total of 12.28 lakh cases -- 12 times more than Dakshina Kannada -- saw only 207 deaths. Similarly, the death toll in Kolar shot up by over 15 per cent, while Karnataka’s toll went up by only 3.6 per cent in July.
Sanjeev Mysore, convener, Jeevan Raksha, said, “It is imperative for Karnataka to be more alert than ever before, and tighten the loose ends. It has to thoroughly look at the unusual aberration in district-wise performance. The State administration should carry out an effective root cause analysis to find the reason for sharp variance in some of these districts, and fix the issue as soon as possible.”
However, Karnataka has done fairly well among in the 28-day period. India added 1.1 million new cases, with 74 per cent of the cases coming from five states -- Kerala, Maharashtra, Odisha, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. Kerala contributed 38 per cent of the new cases (4.29 lakh), followed by Maharashtra with 19 per cent (2.18 lakh).