BENGALURU: The Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) on Covid-19 has advised the State Government to hold the third serosurvey, which should also include children, urgently to mitigate the third wave. “The Central ministry too has sought the survey report. This is going to guide future actions in the State,” the TAC report stated.
TAC Chairman Dr MK Sudarshan said, “It is critical to understand the current state of the virus after the second wave and it should include children. This will help us end the second wave and also mitigate the third one.”
Epidemiologists said reported laboratory-confirmed Covid causes underestimate the true burden of the disease as cases without laboratory confirmation and asymptomatic and mild cases are missed by local surveillance systems. Population-based seroprevalence studies can provide better estimates by taking into account infections that were missed. The emergence of new variants and poor social distancing are most likely to be the reasons for the third wave, they warned.
Dr Manjunath CN, a TAC member who briefed the newly appointed Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai, too said population-based seroprevalence studies can provide better estimates.“Wave-3 impact on children (Age 0 -17 yrs) could be up to 13 times (median) more than wave-2,” the report said.
Experts from the committee, requesting anonymity, said that after three detailed presentations and due deliberations, it was concluded that a high number of children as compared to the second wave are likely to be affected in the State. Adequate clinical preparedness is needed to manage the exigency, they advised.
The committee said that schools can be reopened post September 2021 only after assessing the Covid situation. But the government on Friday announced that schools should be reopened in a graded manner from August 23.
Prime reasons for next wave
The TAC report stated it is clear from genome sequencing data that the second wave was driven by the Delta variant and the “emergence of new variants and poor social distancing are most likely to be the reasons for wave-3”.The third wave is anticipated even with a strong national seroprevalence. “A significant increase in daily vaccination capacity is needed. The vaccination rate should be increased by over 50 per cent,” committee members said.