BENGALURU: Karnataka may soon some of the Covid-19 restrictions being brought back, prompted by concerns in the increase in the number of new cases in some neighbouring states, especially Kerala. The Technical Advisory Committee (TAC), set up by the State Government, is scheduled meet this weekend and decide on actions to be taken to prevent an increase of cases in Karnataka.
“We should not underestimate the Delta variant even with a 1 percent positivity rate. We saw the numbers go up exponentially to 30 percent in a span of just a few weeks. The Delta variant is highly transmissible. We have to bring in certain restrictions and keep a watch on the positivity rate. As of now, it is close to 1.5 percent, but with the Delta variant, it won’t take long to spread,” explained Dr Vishal Rao, Dean, Centre for Academic Research, HCG Hospitals, and member of Genome Sequencing Committee.
He says that right now, the state is inching close to a positivity rate of 5 percent and when it touches the mark, all social gatherings and outdoor entertainment will have to be stopped. “We are seeing a surge in Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Maharashtra, so, at this juncture, we cannot say Karnataka is different. We are in an island in the Delta ocean,” Dr Vishal surmised.
Health experts divided over reimposing curbs in K’taka
While the TAC is meeting to decide on restrictions, experts seem to have mixed opinions on reimposing curbs. While some insist that there should be some kind of restrictions brought back, others prefer to wait and watch.Dr Giridhara Babu R, renowned epidemiologist and member of the TAC, explained that the situation in Kerala is a mixed scenario. The reasons, according to Dr Babu are that due to lower seroprevalence, more susceptible people were at the risk of infection.
As a result, more people got infected. Second, this was picked up well due to better detection, especially because of widespread testing and awareness in the community. Third, the advantage of better detection is matched by higher vaccination coverage and better hospital distribution, resulting in relatively lower mortality. Finally, all this good work has been diluted by allowing super spreader events in the recent past, poor contact tracing and failure to interrupt the transmission, he said.
“Higher transmission in any region always runs the risk of giving rise to newer variants of concern. There are lessons for every state to learn from each other. Karnataka should match the strengths of Kerala’s performance, but here is an opportunity to not to make the same mistake that Kerala is doing,” Dr Babu said.Dr Nagaraj C, Director, Rajiv Gandhi Institute of Chest Diseases, and also a member of the TAC said, “We have to remember our lessons learnt from the second wave. Covid-appropriate behaviour is more important than any kind of restrictions.”
Clarifying that so far, the dominating virus strain in the state has been the Delta variant, and that no new variant has been found here, Dr V Ravi, virologist and former head of Neurovirology Department, NIMHANS, said, “Considering that neighbouring states are seeing a rise in cases, there has to be some restrictions. Kerala has imposed a lockdown, so there is no entry or exit from that state. We have also recommended that a RT-PCR-negative report is a must for those coming from Kerala, irrespective of whether they are vaccinated or not. However, Covid-appropriate behaviour has to be strictly followed.”