BENGALURU: An early warning system for a surge in Covid cases, developed by researchers from the Indian Statistical Institute (ISI), Bengaluru, has warned that 12 districts of Karnataka are showing an increase in effective reproduction number of Covid-19 cases, and two districts need immediate focus as they will reach 1,500 cases per million population, in the next 46 and 72 days.
The research by Siva Athreya, a probability theorist specialising in statistical physics and population biology, and others in the team have created an early warning system from daily reported cases, and each district’s healthcare infrastructure capacity.
The prediction has warned that Chikkamagaluru will reach 1,500 cases per million population in the next 46 days, and Tumakuru in the next 72 days. Explaining the basis of predictions on the website, the researchers said, “From the daily reported cases, a stable early warning system has been created based on each district’s health infrastructure capacity. It is assumed that health infrastructure capacity in a district is proportional to its population. Hence, the days taken to reach 50 cases per million population and 1,500 cases per million population, has been taken as markers for healthcare infrastructure capacity.”
The aim of this prediction is to provide an early warning to epidemiologists and district authorities. The researchers say the growth rate here is equal to the number of new infections per active infection, per unit time. Which means, the number of cases at the peak is taken as a critical number of cases in the early warning system. This is just another marker for healthcare infrastructure capacity.
“For the current date, we use the model to predict active cases for the next 14 days. If the green curve is shooting upward, then this is an early warning for the district,” they said. As per data, in Chikkamagaluru, the R-value is expected to go up to 2.54, with growth rate of 0.243, and days taken to increase to 1,500 active cases per million population (10 lakh people) is 56. For Tumakuru, the R-value is expected to go up to 1.21 with growth rate of 0.207, and days taken is 49 to reach 1,500 per million population. They have also warned other districts where the R-value is expected to grow. These districts are predicted to reach 1,500 active cases per million population in less than 100 days.
worrying signs
Chikkamagaluru, Tumakuru, Bagalkot, Belagavi, Bengaluru Rural, Bengaluru Urban, Chamarajanagar, Chikkaballapur, Davanagere, Dharwad, Hassan, Kodagu, Mysuru, Yadgir