BENGALURU: Congress may fail in its bid to come back to power in Karnataka as an assessment states that the Grand Old Party could enjoy “sure shot” victory in only 55-60 seats, while BJP could win comfortably in 70-75 seats. The same analysis states that JDS could be sure of victory in 15-20 seats. The real fight is only for the remaining 75 to 80 seats.
Assessors said the parties could no way lose from these seats. The BJP strike rate is higher as it effectively contests from 175 seats, while its fight is only nominal in many seats in the Old Mysuru region. At the same time, Congress needs to fix many issues within itself, they added.
At this stage, it looks difficult for Congress to win a majority of 113 seats. Previously, the party has done well and crossed the magic mark only when the other parties were badly divided. In 1989, when the Janata Party split between Ramakrishna Hegde and Deve Gowda, Congress, under the leadership of Veerendra Patil, romped home with 180 seats.
The second time it happened was in 1999 when SM Krishna won with 132 seats, and then, the Janata Parivar had split between Deve Gowda and JH Patel. In 2013, Congress won in 120 seats only because former chief minister BS Yediyurappa quit BJP and floated the Karnataka Janata Party, while Janardhana Reddy and Sriramulu launched BSR.
Pushing this argument, those who conducted the assessment asked how could Congress win a majority if there are no serious unity issues with BJP. After the massive win in Gujarat, there is a greater chance of BJP winning of its own steam or forming the government with the help of other smaller parties, the assessment said.
Congress’ dream of winning 113 seats looks unrealistic at this point, as the opposition party is dogged with leadership and unity issues. The assessment also looked at social engineering efforts by the ruling party to get the support of SC Left, ST Valmiki Nayakas and non-Kuruba OBCs. At the same time, it has kept its Lingayat support base intact in spite of sabre rattling by Panchamsalis.
Congress has admitted that it has “poor quality candidates” in around 15 seats. But it would be a herculean task for party leaders to win a majority, it stated. The fact that BJP could tamp down anti-incumbency against its government and ensure that the Morbi bridge tragedy did not affect its prospects in Gujarat means that the saffron party may put its massive poll machinery to work in Karnataka to brush under the carpet charges of corruption and maladministration against its government, they said.