BENGALURU: The BJP appears to have a clear advantage in the battle for the fourth Rajya Sabha seat, while Kupendra Reddy (JDS) and Mansur Khan (INC) may find the going difficult. Statistically, the BJP has the support of 122 seats.
The party needs 45 seats per candidate -- 90 votes to get FM Nirmala Sitharaman and Jaggesh elected -- and will have 32 spare votes which will go to its third candidate, MLC Lehar Singh, who will also get the highest number of second preferential votes. This means that if Kupendra Reddy gets 32 votes, he may not get elected because Lehar Singh will have the higher second preference vote.
Add to this, MLAs H Nagesh (Ind), N Mahesh (BSP) and Sharath Bache Gowda (Ind) need not show their votes to the whip before casting them. It means the BJP has to ensure that Nagesh and Mahesh vote for Singh, and get Sharath’s vote — he had won as a BJP rebel. If the party manages this, it will have one vote more than Kupendra Reddy and more second preference votes.
There have been instances of cross-voting in the past. During the 2016 Rajya Sabha election, 8 JDS MLAs cross-voted for the Congress, including Zameer Ahmed Khan. They were eventually disqualified from the JDS, and joined the Congress. These JDS MLAs got Rs 100 crore each as grant for their constituencies. Now, since the BJP is in government in the state and Centre, it clearly has the edge.
Lehar Singh, too, is confident of a win. “My Congress and JDS friends will vote for me, I have won earlier also.’’ Minister R Ashoka was equally sure. “We have the highest second preference votes, we know what to do legally and we will do it to win,’’ he said.
One source said there is no way the Congress can win, considering it has only 24 first-preference votes, so Mansoor could withdraw before the last date of nomination. The JDS managed to get patriarch H D Deve Gowda into the Rajya Sabha last time with a similar vote strength. If Gowda, who has friends in the Congress and BJP, can swing it this time, it may be another story, or Reddy will have to withdraw on Friday, and save the party embarrassment.