The ruling BJP is showing all signs of peaking at the right time. The party that looked off the mark just a few months ago has got the rhythm right. Central leaders’ back-to-back visits to the poll-bound state have put its cadre on their toes and shown glimpses of the carpet-bombing style of campaigning in the offing.
The BJP may outgun the resurgent Congress in terms of its ability to reach out to the voters in a more systematic manner at the ground level and deploy top leaders from across the country for election duty in the state. But the party’s biggest concern will be the reservation issue where it is pitted against the numerically strong Panchamasali Lingayat community and not against its political rival Congress.
The reservation issue, which the party considered an X-factor in the run-up to polls, has the potential to undo its well-laid-out strategy. The community, led by seer Basava Jaya Mruthyunjaya Swamijii, is on a warpath. It has rejected the government proposal to create a new 2D category and is sisting on including the community in the 2A category with 15 per cent reservation for backward castes.
It’s an extremely tricky situation when the elections are just around the corner. The community leaders are setting deadlines and have taken to the streets. They even protested in Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai’s home constituency to send out a message to the BJP leadership. The contentious issue also exposed differences among senior Lingayat leaders in the party, making a mockery of the party discipline.
If not handled well, the issue has the potential to shake the very political edifice of the party as the community forms the bedrock of the BJP’s strength in the state. At a time when it is making efforts to gain a foothold in the Vokkaliga-dominated Old Mysuru region and broad-base its strategy to reach out to all segments, it cannot afford to antagonise a section of Lingayats.
The BJP government did make an effort to resolve the issue by leveraging 10 per cent reservation for the Economically Weaker Sections (EWS) that allows the state to increase overall reservations up to 60 per cent. The plan is to implement the EWS reservation for around 3 per cent of communities that are not covered under any reservation and use the remaining 7 per cent to increase the quota for Lingayats and Vokkaliags.
Such a strategy ensures that the government will not disturb those in the 2A category and will also placate the Panchamasali Lingayats. But the community leaders have rejected it. There are also allegations that some Congress leaders, who are part of the movement, are misleading its leadership.
Be that as it may, things have not unfolded as planned by the government and BJP. So much so, the community leaders have decided not to negotiate with the state government and appealed to BJP central leaders to take note of it. They have even warned of an impact on the elections. They have a strong presence in around 80 Assembly segments out of 224 seats in the state.
Many in BJP also feel that the timing is not right. But with the community setting the deadline, the government hardly has any choice. Now, the government has to race against time to take Panchamasalis into confidence without antagonising other communities.
The Congress could capitalise on it without much effort. Its reaction to the ongoing issue is similar to BJP’s response in the run-up to the 2018 polls when the Grand Old Party got into a quandary over the Veerashaiva-Lingayat issue. The opposition party is treading carefully on the reservation demand even as it pulls out all stops to woo voters by announcing populist programmes.
However, it has its share of challenges, including ensuring unity among its leaders from the top to the grassroots level. That will be a concern even for Siddaramaiah, whose search for a safe seat ended in the faction-ridden district of Kolar. Siddaramaiah is banking on the caste arithmetic, but the BJP which is not a big force in the district, has already started the spade work to make the fight difficult for the Congress’s CM aspirant. Taking the Panchamasali Lingayat community into confidence should be BJP’s top priority before the issue gets completely out of hand and impacts its electoral prospects.
Ramu Patil
Associate Editor
ramu@newindianexpress.com