There is never a dull moment in Karnataka politics. It is full of twists and turns, with capricious elements thrown in abundance. At times, many leaders in the ruling and opposition parties seem to be trying to catch up with the speed of developments in their respective camps and decipher possible impact.
Hours before voting in the high-decibel bypolls was to end, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah dropped a political bombshell by claiming that BJP offered Rs 50 crore each to 50 Congress MLAs. It triggered a massive political slugfest. Many ministers backed the CM’s claims on the BJP’s alleged attempts to destabilize the government. But, none gave any specifics about who in the BJP made that offer to which MLAs.
Although the BJP-JDS leaders’ often repeated remarks on the possibility of the government not completing its full tenure did give some credence to the general allegations, the timing and manner in which such specific charges were made raises several questions.
The shocking revelation was made when campaigning in the Maharashtra polls was gaining steam and the investigation into serious allegations against the government and the CM was underway.
The Enforcement Directorate (ED) and Lokayukta police are probing the Mysuru Urban Development Authority (MUDA) sites allotment case against the CM and several others. The Central agency has questioned many, while Lokayukta police recorded the statements of CM and his wife, who returned 14 sites allotted to her. While Congress termed the MUDA case an attempt to tarnish the CM’s image, the courts made scathing remarks.
The ED is also probing an alleged multi-crore scam in the ST Development Corporation, a state-government undertaking. The state police’s Special Investigation Team (SIT) is also investigating the case and is in the process of recovering the corporation funds transferred to private accounts. The Finance portfolio is with the CM.
The Congress leaders may cite past developments in Karnataka and other states to back their claims of BJP’s attempts to destabilize the government, but 50 MLAs is a big number, around 40% of the Congress’s strength in the assembly.
In any case, if the government has such specific information, it should order a probe and also present all the facts before the people of the state. Even the opposition is demanding the same. The government not following up on such serious charges will also create a sense of uncertainty in the system and among people as those charges have been made by the CM.
That apart, many in Congress will also be worried about the political fallout of Siddaramaiah’s close aide and Minister Zameer Ahmed Khan’s derogatory remarks against Union Minister HD Kumaraswamy on the bypolls. There are apprehensions that his alleged racist remarks against the JDS leader would have helped consolidate dominant Vokkaliga votes in JD(S)’s favour in the fiercely fought bypoll where the victory margin is predicted to be razor thin.
After his brother DK Suresh’s shock defeat in the Lok Sabha polls from Bangalore Rural seat, Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar made all-out efforts to wrest the assembly seat from the JD(S). For an ambitious leader, who seems to have set his eyes on the top post, a win in Channapatna is crucial to emerge as a Vokkaliga strongman in the party. His task was made difficult by Kumaraswamy, who seems to have not left anything to chance to retain the seat that he had won in 2023. His son Nikhil Kumaraswamy is the NDA candidate in Channapatna.
In what appears to be such a close contest, a slight shift in one community’s votes can do the damage. After the polls, Khan and his department are also likely to come under the scanner of the party over the Waqf Board’s aggressive stance in claiming farmers’ lands.
His remarks against Kumaraswamy and the Waqf Board’s action handed out a potent issue to the BJP in all three assembly segments in the state as well as other poll-bound states. So much so that Karnataka became an epicentre of the Waqf land issue and the Chairman of the Joint Parliamentary Committee on the Waqf (Amendment) Bill 2024 visited the state to get feedback from aggrieved persons.
In fact, the fight against the Waqf land controversy brought to the fore the differences within the BJP. Two camps in the party have announced separate protests. Over a year after BY Vijayendra was appointed the state president, many seniors within the party continue to openly question his leadership.
Differences in the party had come out in the open on several occasions, including when BJP took out a padayatra from Bengaluru to Mysuru over the MUDA issue. If not addressed, differences within the party could impact its ability to function as an effective opposition.
For now, all eyes are on the November 23 bypoll results. Generally, the parties that are in power in the state have an advantage in bypolls. More than anyone, the results will be important for the CM. Good performance could help to assert his position and to some extent silence his detractors within and outside the party. A poor show could complicate matters.