BENGALURU: The average annual maximum temperature will experience an increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2057 under the ‘Middle of the Road’ emission scenario (where society is assumed to take moderate steps to cut emissions).
The more extreme ‘Fossil-Fueled Development’ (society relying heavily on fossil fuels for energy) emission scenario predicts this temperature rise will occur a decade earlier, by 2047, reveal the Climate Change Projections for India (2021-2040) report of Azim Premji University released on Sunday.
States like Karnataka, Gujarat, parts of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, including parts of Ladakh, will experience an increase in precipitation by 20 to 60 per cent, according to the report.
The new climate data offers critical insights into how climate change will impact the country over the next two decades, revealing key information about India’s climate, detailing how extreme weather events -- like heat waves, droughts, and intense rainfall -- could affect communities, agriculture and natural resources.
Changes in precipitation to impact agriculture
The western part of India will experience a significant increase in precipitation, compared to most of the eastern and northeastern parts, said Prof. Santonu Goswami, Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability, Azim Premji University.
Changes in precipitation patterns can have a significant impact on Indian agriculture, in which half of the population is employed, the report said. The projections examine two Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios-- SSP2-4.5 (moderate emissions and adaptations) and SSP5-8.5 (high emissions with heavy fossil fuel reliance).
Under the high emissions scenario, 249 districts in India will experience an annual maximum temperature change of one degree Celsius or more. Sixteen districts, mostly in the Himalayan states, are projected to experience an annual maximum temperature change of 1.5 degree Celsius or more, with the highest being Leh at 1.8 degree Celsius.
The winter minimum temperature is projected to change by 1.5 degrees Celsius or more in 162 districts, with the highest of 2.2 degrees Celsius in Anjaw district in Arunachal Pradesh.
Twenty-five districts spread across the coastal states and eastern Himalayas will experience more than 31 degrees Celsius summer wet bulb temperature, posing serious threats to human health, the report revealed.
The states of Gujarat, Rajasthan and Ladakh are likely to experience severe flooding due to a notable rise in annual precipitation. Additionally, the increased soil erosion from precipitation will decrease soil fertility and agricultural productivity.
Increased precipitation in higher altitude states like Ladakh will trigger worrying scenarios of climate-induced disasters like landslides and flooding, that can cause significant loss of traditional mud houses of rural populations, posing a threat to their lives, as per the report.