THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Saturday is the D-Day not only for the UPA and NDA, but a crucial one for Kerala’s LDF too. The results from the State, which many believe will be pro- UDF, will trigger a mutiny within the LDF. Even if the results are not as damaging as predicted by the exit polls, a change in the composition of the LDF is imminent.
A serious setback, which may reduce the LDF to less than five seats, will naturally prompt coalition partners CPI and RSP to revolt against the CPM official faction.
The CPI, which is not expecting to win any of the four seats it is contesting, has convened a meeting of its secretariat on Sunday. A sharp reaction that may put CPM state secretary Pinarayi Vijayan in the dock is expected from the CPI leadership on that day.
The results will also make formal the entry of Janata Dal(S) into the UDF.
If the national leadership of the party decides to go along with the UPA, Veerendra Kumar and team will find it easy to migrate to the UPA. In case the JD(S) continues with the Third Front, Veerendra Kumar will split the party and join the UDF. In that case, Mathew T Thomas and Jose Thettayil will remain in the LDF and be hailed as true inheritants of the JD(S) legacy.
Another significant move will be from the part of NCP. The probable switch over of Sharad Pawar to the Third Front may help K Muraleedharan and team to find an asylum in the LDF.
A victory of Muraleedharan from Wayanad, which the state NCP leaders expect, will boost the morale of the state unit of the party and enhance its bargaining power.
The results on Saturday will also be the first litmus test for CPM-PDP alliance.
Hussein Randathani’s win in Ponnani will mark the success of the Pinarayi brand of politics.
And even if Randathani loses by a narrow margin, it will prove that Pinarayi’s efforts were in the right direction as far as attracting Muslim voters is concerned.
Political analysts and observers are also keenly watching the contests in Thiruvananthapuram, Wayanad and Kasargod where there had been multipolar contests.
If Neelan, Murali and Surendran can show their strength in the polls, it will mark the beginning of an era of multipolar politics in Kerala.