Monsoon season continues to be bleak in the state even after the onset of Karkkidakam. South west monsoon is 35 per cent deficient in the state almost six weeks after its onset on June 5.
Against the long period average of 105 cm rainfall, the state got only 69 cm rainfall. Weak monsoon spell during July, which is considered as the highest raining month, is a cause for concern, especially for farmers.
All districts except Kozhikode and Kasargod record deficient rainfall. The entire state has been recording light rainfall for the past three days. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is expecting a change in the situation after Wednesday. “An upper air cyclonic circulation is likely to develop over the north eastern Bay of Bengal after three days. This is expected to bring another fresh spell,” said K Santhosh, director, IMD, Thiruvananthapuram. The entire country is waiting for the IMD to update forecast by the last week of July. The past two forecasts issued by the IMD predicted normal monsoon for the country.
Meanwhile, the meteorologists are closely watching the developments in the Pacific sea. The World Meteorological Organisation had predicted development of El Nino conditions, warming of ocean surface in the Pacific, in July-September period.
Though the IMD rejects a one to one association with monsoon, El-Nino was blamed for poor monsoon in 2009. Monsoon covered the entire country by July 11, four days prior to the normal date of July 15. July is usually considered as the most active month in the monsoon period. Low rainfall during July is dimming the hope of a normal monsoon, especially in the wake of developing El-Nino conditions.
“There have been experiences in the past when deficient rainfall in July was compensated by rainfall in August. IMD, Pune, will update the forecast after July 25,” Santhosh said.