THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: While the Lok Sabha exit polls were able to predict the electoral outcome for the country, that of a clean sweep by the BJP and allies, NDA riding on the Modi wave, the poll pundits were way off the mark in Kerala. With the LDF actually increasing its tally by adding four seats to the result of the last Lok Sabha polls, surveys which predicted a landslide victory for the UDF in the state, by a 18-2 margin, fell flat when it comes to understanding the Malayali’s political thought process. Shashi Tharoor was able to retain the seat but his majority margin shrank to 14,501 votes. Some exit polls had predicted a victory for the BJP candidate here, fully endorsing the view of BJP leader L K Advani. “In Kerala, the behaviour of voters differs from the rest of the country. Even when a Modi wave was sweeping at the national level, there was consolidation of secular votes in Kerala, which gave a slight edge to the UDF. Also, the exit poll predictions are projected on the basis of a slim sample. If you look at a constituency like Thiruvananthapuram or Chalakkudy, the opinion of people at one Assembly segment may be entirely different from that of another segment. Due to these variations, the exit polls failed to nail the outcome in Kerala,” said Shaji Varkey, head, Department of Political Science, Kerala University.
Among the constituencies where the poll predictions went completely wrong was Chalakkudy, where actor and LDF-backed Independent candidate Innocent trounced Congress heavyweight P C Chacko. Chacko.