THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The south-west monsoon will not hit the Kerala coast on Saturday (May 30) as forecast earlier, but will be delayed by a couple of days, said D S Pai, Head, Long Range Forecast, Indian Metereological Department.
Pai told ‘Express’ that favourable conditions such as heavy cloud formation and strong westerly winds have not yet set in. ‘’However, the conditions might improve after May 30,” he said. The Met Department had earlier this month forecast that the south-west monsoon will hit the Kerala coast on May 30 with an error of plus or minus four days.
The weatherman has predicted that the country is likely to witness a ‘below normal’ monsoon season this year. The south-west monsoon is expected to be 93 per cent of a long-period average. Last year, Kerala received six per cent excess rainfall during the south west monsoon season (from June 1 to September 30). However, the country as a whole recorded 12 per cent less rainfall than the long-period average.
Pai said that an adverse impact of El Nino weather pattern (warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific prompting dry spells in Southeast Asia) on the south-west monsoon cannot be ruled out.
“A fresh forecast, which will be out in the first week of June, will take into account the impact of El Nino, if any, on the monsoon,” he said. The south-west monsoon in 2009 was hit by an El Nino, recording one of the driest rainy seasons in four decades.