THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: What would have been the outcome of an Assembly bypoll in the present political milieu had it not been the IUML bastion at Vengara ? Though hypothetical,the answer could send a chill down the spine of the UDF camp. While a debate has come up the UDF victory in Vengara on a comfortable but reduced margin is a message and indeed emboldens the ruling LDF Government,the fact remains in a larger political context wherein the opposition to the Sangh Parivar forces is pronounced among the religious minorities, particularly the state’s Muslim community, the main Opposition UDF will have to ponder over many things in its future political course.
Invariably a host of factors had brought down the victory margin of K N A Khader at Vengara, though a bypoll has its own limitations to broad base a trend or locally grown mindset across the state. Khader, an outsider to Vengara whose candidature had created minor rumblings locally, did not have the political stature or clout of IUML stalwart and native son P K Kunhalikutty,who had vacated the seat to successfully contest the Malappuram Lok Sabha bypoll. Thus within the space of little over a year, the voters in Vengara went through two byelections.
The seething discontent among the Muslim voters against the policies of the BJP-NDA Government at the Centre was exposed by the UDF on a level best while also charging upon the Pinarayi Vijayan Government here,but the LDF campaign strategy was to assert none could act as the real ‘saviours’ of minorities .Though the UDF targeted the LDF for going soft on BJP-RSS ,citing recent incidents like the Pinarayi Government withdrawing or soft-pedalling on cases against the leaders of the latter, it was the SDPI, more vocal on this count much to the delight of the hardcore elements in the community, which notably garnered more votes.
For many moderates or yet to be enlightened but threat perception gripped Muslim voters, the poll outcome indicates beyond the valiant campaigns of the IUML,the CPM is giving more hope. The manner in which the CPM countered the BJP’s high-voltage state-wide yatra,coinciding with the bypoll,had the verve to instill such hopes.The dip in the IUML’s vote share has no other reason as such an undercurrent was strong when Vengara was inching towards the bypoll. At the same time, in the Lok Sabha bypoll,the same electorate seems to have been guided by the IUML campaign strengthening the Congress is imperative to checkmate the Hindutva forces since the Left is not a force to reckon with at the national level.
Interestingly, unlike in the 2016 Assembly polls, the drain in UDF votes did not benefit the BJP at Vengara . The hype created by the BJP with the CPM as an arch enemy in the state didn’t fire in the bypoll,but it definitely engineered a poll mindset. But for the redoubtable IUML, the political consequences for the UDF in such circumstances would have been different.
Discontent of the people towards any government could grow or decline on various issues and communal factors may be part of it. Against this backdrop, a ‘powerless’ Congress at the Centre and the state, has to work overtime to prevent the erosion of its political base. That the Solar bomb kept ticking against many state Congress leaders is going to be an add-on, in the challenge ahead for the UDF, though it had only minimal impact at Vengara.
A shift in minority votes towards the LDF,if it keeps growing,could prove disastrous to the UDF,when the BJP can make it a three-way fight. The SDPI’s performance signals the likely poaching of hardcore Muslim votes in many segments across the state in the future and the BJP’s virulent drive by fanning communal passions will only help it.