THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: If the past is any indication, the results of the October 11 bypoll at Vengara, an IUML turf, will hardly throw up any surprises.Still, the bypoll’s outcome, including the victory margin, will be a crucial political indicator for UDF in general, and its second largest ally IUML in particular. Notwithstanding the IUML’s demand to introduce new faces in the political arena and the name of IUML state secretary U A Latheef doing the rounds till the last minute, the alliance decided to opt for a seasoned choice like K N A Khader to contest the bypoll and eye a predicted win.The vocal yet sober voice that he is, Khader’s addition to the Opposition ranks in the Assembly at this juncture will prove significant to the alliance.
The victory margin gains significance after K P A Majeed, who was favoured when discussions commenced on the IUML candidate, backed out apparently realising his tag as ‘Mujahid lenient’ would have antagonised the majority Sunni sect, the party’s backbone.In the case of P K Kunhalikutty, both Sunni and Mujahid factors worked in his favour when he retained the Vengara seat in the 2016 Assembly polls with a handsome 38,000 plus victory margin. This was evident in the recent LS bypoll too.
So, even Congress – the UDF’s biggest partner – while leaving IUML to deal with its internal issues, is yearning to see the victory margin go up in the bypoll.
“It is very important for UDF,” Opposition leader and UDF chairman Ramesh Chennithala told Express. KPCC president M M Hassan said the same. “We are looking at ways to improve the victory margin. As a well-known figure and proven former legislator, Khader’s candidature will bring the desired poll dividends,” he said.
Different ball game for UDF, Left
Notably, neither Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan nor CPM state secretary Kodiyeri Balakrishnan are ready to accept the Opposition’s repeated challenge the first assembly bypoll under the present government be taken as a referendum on it. The outcome of the bypoll is a forgone conclusion more so in the absence of a ‘pro’ or an ‘anti’ wave and the state being engrossed in the actor assault case.
However, the bypoll will be a different ballgame for the UDF which is yet to gain momentum despite getting more than enough ammo thanks to issues which gripped the state government in just one-and-half years of its tenure.
The BJP’s emergence despite corruption charges came in the way of the UDF’s gains and left the Left Government in a comfort zone. The latter’s projected image as a capable force to counter Sangh Parivar forces has also played spoilsport for the Congress-led UDF.
Fighting the BJP-led Centre’s policies is all the more important for the UDF even while opposing the Left in the state, as the next electoral fight on cards is for the Lok Sabha. So, the bypoll, unlike for LDF, will be a precursor to the LS elections for UDF. The return of the minority communities under the UDF fold will be tested, as it may have an impact in regions outside Vengara and Malappuram since the UDF made electoral gains only when all the social and religious minority groups, aligned with it enbloc.