KOCHI: Kerala is yet to fully understand the long-term impact of the devastating August 2018 flood on state’s migration. Now, a study by the Centre for Development Studies (CDS) suggests that Gulf returnees may look to go back to the Middle East after losing their homes and properties in the natural calamities.
“For most Malayalis, having a home of their own is a dream. Once they build a decent home here, most of them return to settle down here for the rest of their lives. However, the aftermath of the flood saw massive damage to the homes and properties,” said S Irudaya Rajan of CDS, who has been studying Malayalis’ migration since 1998.
Rajan said he has nearly completed the survey in the flood-hit districts to find the number of people who are going back to the Gulf in search of jobs again. “The task was easier this time because we have just released the Kerala migration survey for the five- year period from 2013 to 2018 in January this year where we have details of Gulf returnees,” he said.
The Kerala Migration Survey, the eighth in the series of studies on migration undertaken by the CDS since 1998, showed that the number of return emigrants to Kerala in 2018 reaching 13 lakh after 42,325 people came back in the five-year period from 2013 to 2018. The corresponding numbers were 12.50 lakh in 2013, 11.57 lakh in 2008, 8.94 lakh in 2003 and 7.39 lakh in 1998.
Rajan said he will release the findings of the survey in January.K V Joseph, an economist who has also been tracking the migration of Keralites, said he does not think there would be people going back to the Gulf in search of jobs again. “The situation in the Gulf is not good compared to earlier days. People who have returned are unlikely to go back again,” he said.
Fall in price of crude oil -- from $151/barrel in 2008 to $ 68/barrel now -- and the localisation of jobs in the Gulf region meant that the job market for migrants are not as vibrant as it was a few decades ago in that part of the world. Despite the bad condition, Rajan said the situation could be better than the job market in India. “People may be willing to work for lower pay or prefer to work for longer hours there to earn the same money they would have got earlier in the Gulf,” he said.
The state government’s compensation for flood victims is minuscule compared to the huge losses suffered by the people. The government offered just `10,000 for every family affected by the flood; those who lost their land were promised a compensation of `6 lakh and `4 lakh to those who lost their homes completely.
Insufficient aid
The state government’s compensation for flood victims is minuscule compared to the huge losses suffered by people. Over 483 people died, 140 went missing and about 10 lakh people were evacuated in the August 2018 flood. The government offered just C10,000 for every family affected by the flood.