THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: A Covid-19 projection made by the health department forecasts that the pandemic spread in the state will stop either in seven months after one lakh people get infected or with two lakh cases in six months.
It also says that by the end of August, the active cases in the state will be around 18,000 and more than 150 deaths could be expected.
The projection has been made for the next hundred days and beyond. "Of those coming from outside, the total number of people testing positive and their contacts will be around 18,000 by the end of August.
"More than 150 deaths may be expected from this group by that time," states an excerpt of the presentation
made by the health department and accessed by TNIE.
The forecast has been made with the help of various basic reproduction models (used to measure the transmission potential of a disease and the average number of secondary infections produced by a typical case of an infection in a population where everyone is susceptible).
'Discharge after ten days'
"A peak situation is one in which a thousand hospitalisations happen per day. That is 500 from community and 500 from immigrants. Thus, the reproduction number will have to be kept under control with stringent public health measures," said the document.
It also forecasts that if only around two per cent of infected persons reach hospitals for admission for an average of 10 days of hospital stay, it will not burden the health system. But a highly unlikely situation will emerge if 7.5 per cent of the hospitalised had an average stay of 21 days and 10 per cent of the infected get hospitalised for an average of 28 days.
The strategies to reduce the caseload, as suggested by the document, includes strict quarantine, break the chain activities, physical distancing including reverse quarantine, early diagnosis and treatment and reducing hospital stay by discharging patients after ten days in uncomplicated cases.
Dr Abraham Varghese, president, IMA-Kerala chapter, said, "Such Covid-19 projections are coming from across the world. Considering the situation at hand, the forecast for Kerala might become true. The cases will continue to spike.
"The key will be to what extent the public responds to the government's prevention and control programmes."
At the same time, the Kerala Government Medical Officers' Association (KGMOA) says that such projections have no base as the virus itself has turned out to be unpredictable.