THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The Covid-19 projection made by the Kerala State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA) says that active cases will peak in the last week of July or early August.As per the projection, if Kerala can limit the infection to the returnees, then it will be able to become stable by October or November. If the returnees transmit the virus to contacts and a local spread happens, then cases will subside only next year. The KSDMA had prepared the report by assuming the basic reproductive number (R) --- the average number of people to whom an infected can transmit the virus during his/her illness --- as 2.5.
“In an epidemiological situation, such a projection is made to equip the agencies concerned to prepare the resources for handling a worst-case scenario. In this case, a highly unlikely situation has been predicted,” said a source with the KSDMA.
At the same time, it is learnt that though the public health experts are of the assessment that the R-value for the state will remain at 1.5, Revenue Secretary A Jayathilak asked the KSDMA to come out with a projection by considering the R-value at 2.5. “That means an infected one will transmit the virus to an average two-and-a-half people in society. The higher the R factor, the faster the epidemic spreads,” added the source.
It was the third forecast report that the KSDMA had submitted to the government --- the first in March and second in April. The report was prepared by a team of experts headed by Dr Anish T S, associate professor, community medicine, Thiruvananthapuram Government Medical College, who is currently posted as the public health consultant with KSDMA.