COVID-19 waves aren’t ending anytime soon, experts warn
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: While the state is bracing up for the third wave of coronavirus infections, public health experts have warned the pandemic may extend into a fourth or fifth wave. It is high time the state came to terms with the harsh reality that the viral infection isn’t going away soon. Experts cite a couple of studies conducted by premier institutes that attempt to predict the path COVID-19 is likely to take in the coming months. An infectious disease expert with a government medical college (GMC) told The New Indian Express that fresh waves of COVID-19 may happen in the state. “The curiosity is about how society will become immune to the infection,” the doctor said.
“Mass immunisation drive is one way. For that, a vaccine will have to be developed and pass various trials. The other is herd immunity, which can’t be chosen as a strategy as it develops gradually in the population.” The doctor said a study by the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy predicts three scenarios in which COVID-19 could progress. Another study, published by the American Association for the Advancement of Science, states a resurgence in contagion is possible as late as 2024 even in the event of apparent elimination.
Dr B Ekbal, who chairs the state expert committee on COVID-19, said people will have to learn to live with the virus in society.“At the same time, we have to manage them. It will be unrealistic to say that one is immune to the virus and can evade all preventive measures,” he said. Experts point out that the state should make remarkable changes to its psychological, sociological, economic and political outlooks to minimise the impact of new COVID-19 attacks, especially when the Centre is set to chalk out a lockdown exit plan. Considerable changes will also have to be made to societal behaviour. At the same time, they say measures like social distancing, limiting gatherings and enforcing various levels of lockdown cannot become preferred options while planning for the long term.
Dr Anish T S of Department of Community Medicine, GMC, Thiruvananthapuram, said that a government should choose a prevention and control strategy according to its strengths and weaknesses.“There are countries that enforced total lockdown while some went with social distancing alone. Both have their own merits and demerits. The key is to strike a balance,” he said.