KOCHI: The formation of a low pressure area over the Bay of Bengal has made favourable conditions for an early onset of monsoon in Kerala. Meteorologists say that the low pressure area is expected to intensify into a cyclonic storm within two days and, under its influence, the monsoon may hit Kerala coast by May 26.
According to India Meteorological Department (IMD), a low pressure area has formed over Southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman Sea. It is likely to concentrate into a depression over central Bay of Bengal on May 15 and intensify into a cyclonic storm on May 16. It may move initially northwestwards and then re-curve northeastwards.
“The monsoon was expected to reach Andaman by May 22. However, the depression over Bay of Bengal can advance the monsoon surge, which is now expected to land at Andaman by May 15 or 16. Normally the monsoon hits Kerala coast 10 days after reaching Andaman. So we can expect the onset of monsoon by May 26 in Kerala,” said Cusat Department of Atmospheric Science assistant professor Abhilash S.
“The IMD had forecast that monsoon may hit Kerala coast by June 1. However, the intensification of the low pressure area over Bay of Bengal can help advance the monsoon surge. A depression over Bay of Bengal ahead of the onset of monsoon is always favourable for Kerala. If the depression is over Arabian Sea, it will adversely affect the arrival of monsoon.
Kerala has been receiving intermittent summer rains from April first week onwards. This has helped keep the temperature at bay. Chances of summer rains adversely affecting the performance of monsoon are low. The driving force for monsoon is the hot conditions prevailing in North and Central India,” said IMD former director S Sudevan.Meanwhile, the IMD has forecast moderate to isolated heavy rainfall across Kerala till May 17.
When the rains came
May 11, 1918 Earliest onset of monsoon over Kerala
June 18, 1972 Delayed onset of monsoon over Kerala