THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The spectre of a new wave of Covid-19 cases across the country has given the state health department the jitters. While officials assess that the state will witness the curve bending till the middle of December, the situation is expected to take a turn for the worse after that.
They estimate that after the local body elections, there will be a steep rise in cases between December 25 and January 1.
“The immediate cause for the possible exponential curve will be the local body poll. Hence, it has been decided to further intensify the ongoing containment measures. Also, efforts are being made with the help of the Election Commission and respective district administrations to ensure strict adherence to Covid protocol during the elections,” said a health department official.
According to him, the area of concern remains the election campaigning that is under way. The department continues to receive reports from the ground that the candidates and those who accompany them are flouting the Covid protocol.
Stipulations like physical distancing, facemask wearing and not visiting vulnerable groups are being violated rampantly.
At the same time, some officials have also raised concern that as respiratory illnesses peak during the winter season, the intense cold conditions from November to January in northern states might have its effects in the state also.
“Respiratory illnesses in general and some coronavirus infections have seasonal effects. It remains unknown how SARS-CoV-2 behaves in the colder months, especially when there is evidence that the virus has undergone mutation. The case studies from other parts of the world show that cases can quickly double and then double again during the winter season,” said an infectious disease expert at a government medical college hospital.
However, Sreekumar E, scientist, Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Biotechnology, said whether Covid-19 will show a seasonal spike or not is yet to be ascertained.
Much will depend on how people behave.
“Be it election or the cold season, the main driver of the virus spread is the people. They shouldn’t be complacent in following the control measures like physical distancing and mask wearing. The predictions might be inconsistent but, if the basic measures are not followed, the result will be an exponential increase,” said Sreekumar, who is also a member of the state expert committee for Covid-19.