KOCHI: As the battle against COVID-19 wears on, Kerala is witnessing a rapid surge in the spread of the virus. Along with the rising number of daily cases, the death toll too is increasing sharply. In the 13 days since Thiruvonam day on August 31, 145 deaths have been officially confirmed, with the state consistently reporting more than 10 deaths daily in the last 11 days.
As many as 15 deaths were reported on Saturday and 14 on Sunday, taking the total toll to 439. The number of confirmed COVID deaths in the state in August alone was 221.
Compared to other Indian states, the mortality rate (MR) due to the pandemic in Kerala has been low throughout. However, what is disconcerting is that the MR has risen steadily from 0.31 per cent in July to 0.41 per cent as on date.
"While analysing the statistics from August to September, we can see the MR has seen a significant rise from 0.31 to 0.41 per cent. Earlier too, we have seen higher MR, when it touched 0.7 per cent in June. There had been an encouraging decline over many weeks, but now we are seeing a rise," said Rijo M John, health economist and senior fellow at the Centre for Public Policy Research.
"The state has been reporting a high number of COVID cases in the past few weeks. As the number of cases is going up, the number of patients succumbing to the infection is also bound to rise. Compared to other Indian states, however, Kerala will be successful in keeping the death rate low, with our improved healthcare system and medical infrastructure," said Rijo.
Meanwhile, Dr Anup R Warrier, infectious disease expert, said with more cases being reported, the number of deaths would also go up as there will be many undiagnosed cases for every diagnosed case.
Portending bleak times ahead in the COVID fight, Health Minister KK Shailaja had recently said that the number of COVID deaths in the state was likely to go up. "We also cannot rule out the fact that our hospitals are overburdened, so in the coming days, we can expect more deaths. If we factor in the unreported Covid deaths, the numbers will be much higher than the current figures," said Anup.