Post-Onam surge likely for three weeks, better immunity to aid this time in Kerala
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Onam festivities are barely over and the state is already experiencing a Covid surge, with the test positivity rate going past 17%.Health experts say the number of new cases are likely to go further up in the next three weeks— nearly as high as the figures reported during the peak of the second wave in May (when the daily case count crossed 43,000). There will also be a marginal rise in ICU and ventilator occupancy, though the number of severe infection cases will be comparatively less, thanks to the vaccination coverage and immunity developed after recovering from Covid.
As an immediate impact of the post-Onam surge, more local body wards may come under lockdown, based on the density of positive cases reviewed weekly by Covid management committee. Currently, 414 wards in 74 local bodies are under stringent lockdown. Experts say that the rise in the number of infected is yet to get reflected in the government statements. Besides, the festival period is marked by the low number of daily tests. Also, a comparatively fewer deaths were reported in the past three days.
Health experts say that the upward trend in daily cases is likely to continue till the beginning of September. The ICU occupancy is also set to increase though the spike will not be as high as what we saw during the peak in May. That said, a few districts will be stretched to the capacity, they said. '
“Fresh Covid cases will increase,
almost as high as the figures reported during the peak this May. If we increase the number of daily tests to 2,00,000, around 35,000 cases will be reported between the end of August and beginning of September. The ICU and ventilator use will also increase at a lower rate,” said internal medicine specialist and public health activist Dr N M Arun.According to him, the number of people in need of ICU and ventilator support is likely to touch 3,000 and 1,100, respectively.
Usually, the ICU and ventilator use increases the most within a fortnight after the peak in the number of daily positives. During the second wave, 3,938 people occupied ICU beds and 1,502 needed ventilator support on May 24. This time, the situation is likely to improve as the number of people getting severe infection would be less due to the vaccination coverage and immunity developed from recovering from Covid, said Dr Arun.Dr S S Santhosh Kumar, deputy superintendent of Thiruvananthapuram Medical College and Hospital, said the medical college hospitals which treat the most severe infections have seen a decline in the number of critical patients.
“The new positive cases and TPR are set to increase for the next two-three weeks. But most of the new cases will belong to category ‘A’ or mild infection. The severe infection cases are on the decline. This positive trend is a reflection of the vaccination overage in the state. The Covid dashboard shows the ventilator occupancy is below 40%. So, we are in a comfortable position even if it becomes double,” he said.The experts, however, were cautious of the situation in Malappuram, which has shown low ICU/ventilator vacancy. They suggested measures to ramp up the capacity there by converting non-Covid facilities.
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