THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: It was on August 31 last year that the Covid test positivity rate reached the threshold of 10 per cent for the first time in the state. That day when 1,530 new positive cases were reported, the TPR was 9.92%. From September 15 last year to February first week this year, the TPR hovered around the 10% mark almost everyday.
Except for rare days when TPR had come down to around 7% and climbed up to 12 per cent, the average range of 9-11% was maintained steadily for nearly five months after the peak of the first wave. The TPR then dropped to 2.74% on March 15. However, the second wave hit the state after two weeks.
The scenario is no different in the second wave. An analysis of the disease progression shows that the declining pattern since May mid-week when the TPR touched the peak of nearly 30% has plateaued around 10 in the third week of June. For the last three weeks, the TPR has been continuing in the range of 10% with the weekly average of 10.3%. If calculated from the beginning of the pandemic till date, the average TPR in Kerala is 12.58%. Experts attribute this to the strategy of delayed peak and delayed decline followed by the state which helped us reduce crisis such as shortage of oxygen beds.
However, there is a marked difference between long plateau phases of the first and second wave. While the plateauing months during the first wave saw the state unlocked fully and lives going on normally, illogical lockdown restrictions have seriously affected lives in the second wave. Currently, triple lockdown is in force in 175 local body areas while lockdown is in force in 362, just because the recorded TPR for the previous week was above 15% and above 10%, respectively, in those regions.
“The fixation on TPR as the ‘be-all and end-all’ indicator will only help create panic and devastate the economy. The TPR data was helpful initially when mitigation was important. Now, we only need to check the availability of ICU beds and ventilator beds as a parameter for enforcing lockdown,” said Dr Aju Mathew, a leading oncologist and health researcher. “We have sufficient healthcare resources and have a fair understanding on how to manage the infection,” he said.
As on Thursday, only 2,058 of the 9,735 ICU beds and 775 of the 3,766 ventilator beds were occupied. Four-fifth of the available resources was free on Thursday and the trend had been similar throughout the last fortnight. A senior doctor who works with Covid management in the state said the government was blindly following the directive from the Union ministry regarding lockdown.
“The Centre says states should lock down places where TPR is higher than 10%. We are now waiting to bring it below 10% to lift restrictions. There is no logic for that,” he said on condition of anonymity. “It is unfair to compare Kerala’s stats with that of other states and devise a common strategy. Our population density and fairer reporting practices also need to be accounted for. Moreover, the presence of home clusters across the state is adding to numbers this time. Infection in home clusters is not an indicator of community spread,” he said.
The plateauing of TPR around 10% is likely to continue for at least three months, said Dr Arun N M, health activist and researcher based in Palakkad. “This was the pattern in the first wave and the same will continue. For over three weeks, we have been maintaining this level and it will continue for two more months, may be with a slight dip. Our strategy of delaying the peak has helped us control the situation. Reporting 10,000 to 12,000 new cases a day is not anything serious as we are well equipped to handle such a caseload,” he said.
Commenting on the sudden spike in cases, Arun said the illogical strategy of limiting trade and business to operate on only three days of a week is a reason. “Google mobility data of recent weeks indicates that crowd at most of the places is higher on Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Let’s open all places on all days from 7am to 11pm. It is important to reduce crowding now,” he said.
Tony Thomas, chief digital and information officer at Signify, said the whole concept of imposing lockdown based on non-random sampling tests is wrong. “They only test those with influenza-like illness and the primary contacts of the infected. Naturally, the percentage of infected will be higher in such a group. To gauge community spread, they need to test a scientific sample,” said Tony. “It is high time we learnt to live with Covid like we are living with Influenza. The disease is here to say. All curbs need to be withdrawn and the government should allow people to live responsibly,” he said.
On Thursday, Health Minister Veena George said the central delegation which visited the state expressed satisfaction over the government’s Covid management strategy. They didn’t find the plateauing of TPR around 10% problematic. It remains to be seen whether the conviction of the central team prompt the state to redefine its lockdown strategy.
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