THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Going by the current assessment, Covid third wave could hit the state by the second or third week of September. Experts feel that the Onam week in August could trigger the onset of the third wave which could be less intensive in nature, as compared to the second wave.
The ongoing vaccination drive and number of patients already affected during the second wave could provide a safety net for a large population during the third wave, they said. Though the number of cases has gone up, there’s now a significant change in the patient profile, pointed out Dr Santhosh Kumar S S, Deputy Superintendent, Thiruvananthapuram Medical College.
“If we look at the numbers in the past couple of weeks, the number of total patients per day (between 1 and 1.15 lakh), TPR (10-11) and new patients per day have remained more or less constant. But there’s a change in the patient profile. Those who have been hospitalised, especially those in ICU or ventilator or need oxygen support, have come down. More than 90 per cent of patients are in home care. Similarly the younger population are mostly affected. It shows the effect of vaccination in the Covid spread. Also, a look at the third wave spreading pattern in countries like Poland, Spain and the UK shows that the number of cases are high, but those hospitalised are relatively low,” he said.
With more sectors opening up, massive interactions would trigger the next wave. Onam, which falls in the third week of August, could be one occasion where there will be major interactions at the grassroots level, said Dr Anish T S, associate professor for community medicine at Thiruvananthapuram Medical College.
“The third wave will be there, but it won’t be as intense as the second wave. As per my assessment, cases per day may not go beyond 25,000 during the third wave,” he said.
The extensive vaccination coverage could help the state tide over the second wave. About 1.17 crore have taken the first dose, while about 44 lakh have taken the second dose. 31 lakh have already been affected. Hence about 2 crore of the state population would be either vaccinated or already infected at least once. Majority of them won’t be affected during the third wave.
Having said that, there’s one factor that could change these calculations. Going by the current assessment, it would be the Delta plus variant that would wreak havoc during the third wave. “But if there’s a major genetic mutation of virus with some highly virulent variant showing up, then things could be different,” warn the doctors.