THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The state is back in a familiar situation -- it leads in infection rate and new Covid cases among the states in the country. Health experts say these show the pandemic spread has plateaued and it will continue for a couple of more months as had happened after the first wave.
According to them, the slow rate of decline in new cases is a result of the strategy of delaying the peak. However, reducing the testing numbers and the presence of fast-spreading virus variants could harm a sizable number of susceptible population.
“A sharp rise and fall in TPR is an indication that your control system is a failure and you allowed the wave to continue without any checks. The TPR falls rapidly when there are fewer people left to get infected. It has not happened in Kerala. We checked the spread that could have made the healthcare system collapse. So it is natural that the duration of the epidemic will be longer,” said Dr Anish T S, assistant professor at the Department of Community Medicine, Government Medical College Hospital, Thiruvananthapuram.
A high TPR led the Centre to dispatch expert teams to visit the state twice and recommend ways to reduce it. During the period, the pandemic strategy of the state was also questioned, but the health department and other experts justified the strategy.
The daily infections plateaued at around 5,000 since December last year after the peak of the first wave in October. However, the days after the peak of the second wave in mid-May has seen daily new cases almost doubling from the days after the first wave. A few health experts maintained that the state could improve its testing and contact tracing for better control over the TPR and daily cases.
“The detection rate is high mainly because the people here have a more health-seeking behaviour as compared to other states. There will be a plateau situation at least for three months before tapering off. However, we could still reduce the TPR to around 5% from the 11-12% we see these days,” said Dr N M Arun, internal medicine specialist and a public health expert.
While health department officials said the testing numbers could not be increased due to weak demand, its strategy of contact tracing has been questioned by experts. “Those who tested positive for Covid still get at least four calls from authorities. But there is not much thrust given to follow up the testing of primary contacts,” said Dr Arun.
Over 10,000-12,000 people test positive for Covid everyday and it indicates that the state still has a large number of susceptible people. “The plateauing of daily cases will continue as was the situation after the first wave. However, the major difference now is that the virus has mutated. The state should focus on contact tracing when fast-spreading variants such as delta plus are present,” said immunologist and public health expert Dr Padmanabha Shenoy.