THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The detection of the Covid Delta Plus variant infection in the state indicates the approaching third wave which, according to experts, would hit the country in the next six to eight weeks. With the vaccination drive yet to pick up pace, around 72% of the population in Kerala still remain susceptible to the virus.
According to health experts, the state has to ramp up more critical care infrastructure to manage the cases, which are expected to double when the third wave hits the peak. In Kerala, around 4.5 lakh active cases were reported during the peak of the second wave. The Delta Plus variant is more aggressive and highly infectious than the Delta variant which caused the second wave in Kerala and India, they said.
It is learnt that the gap between the waves depends on vaccine coverage, Covid-appropriate behaviour and the virus variant. Unfortunately, vaccination is yet to pick up pace. The third wave has started in the UK and many other countries. According to experts, Kerala should anticipate nine to 10 lakh active cases and should ramp up infrastructure on a war footing to manage the surge.
Santhosh Kumar S S, deputy superintendent (emergency medicine), Thiruvananthapuram Medical College Hospital, said the state may face the third wave during September-October. “It’s already under way in the UK and from the reports we are getting, it’s a more fast-spreading variant compared to the second wave. They are able to manage it because vaccination has been completed and the ventilator requirement is very low,” said Santhosh Kumar.
Compared to the second wave, the patients requiring ICU beds and ventilators would double during the third wave in the state. “A minimum of 3% patients might require critical care. During the second wave, we had around 4.5 lakh active cases and needed around 15,000 ICU beds. During the third wave, the requirement might double,” he added.
A senior official of the Directorate of Health Services (DHS) said the reporting of Delta Plus variant doesn’t indicate the third wave.
“Another wave will strike us when we become more careless. People should strictly adopt Covid-appropriate behaviour even when restrictions are not there. We are ramping up paediatric infrastructure and strengthening the vaccination drive as part of the preparations. We have directed the private healthcare institutions to earmark 50 per cent of their beds for Covid. Depending on the demand, we will set aside more beds,” said the official. The state still faces a vaccine shortage. “It’s not possible to prioritise the beneficiaries based on comorbidities among the 18-44 age group as such data is not available,” the official added.
State secretary of IMA (Indian Medical Association) Dr P Gopikumar said the government should give more priority for vaccination right now. “The state should make use of the time we might get ahead of the third wave and vaccinate the entire population. Even a single dose of vaccine could help us stave off the third wave. The IMA has urged the government on this multiple times. The supply and distribution of vaccines are slow and there are technical glitches too,” he said.
The Kerala Government Medical Officers’ Association (KGMOA) has demanded the state government to address the existing shortage of manpower at healthcare institutions immediately.
Secretary of KGMOA T N Suresh said, “Efforts are in full swing to ramp up infrastructure at public sector healthcare institutions. The government is anticipating increased oxygen requirements and installation of more oxygen plants are under way. However, manpower shortage is a real crisis. The government should offer attractive packages and hire more doctors, paramedical and other supporting staff on a contractual basis,” he said.
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