THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: One of the curious angles of Sunday’s counting will be the results in two bellwether constituencies of the state. A bellwether constituency is an indicator of the general trend in an election. The world over, psephologists look at the trends from such constituencies for election analyses though the belief has no scientific base.In Kerala, Ollur in Thrissur district and Parassala in Thiruvananthapuram district are considered bellwether constituencies.
From the 1982 elections, Ollur has elected the representative of the front which would eventually come to power. Parassala’s behaviour is similar, except for 1996 when Congress rebel N Sundaran Nadar won the seat as an independent. As the time when the LDF and the UDF took shape formally, 1982 is considered the base year for the state’s electoral calculations.Congress candidate Raghavan Puzhakadavil won Ollur in 1982 when the K Karunakaran led-UDF came to power.
In 1987, when the E K Nayanar-led LDF government assumed office, Ollur elected CPI candidate A M Paraman. In the subsequent elections of 1991, 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2011, P P George (Congress), C N Jayadevan (CPI), P P George (Congress), Rajaji Mathew Thomas (CPI) and M P Vincent (Congress) emerged victorious, respectively. Last time, CPI’s K Rajan -- now the chief whip - wrested the constituency from the Congress and the LDF coasted to power. Rajan is seeking re-election from Ollur.
In Parassala, Congress candidate N Sundaran Nadar won the poll in 1982 when Karunakaran formed the government.
He won as a congress candidate again in 2001 when the A K Antony-led UDF government was formed. In 1996, Sundaran Nadar contested as a rebel after quitting the Congress and won, but the government was formed by the LDF. In 1987, CPM’s N Sathyanesan and in 1991, Congress’s M R Raghuchandrabal won from the constituency.
Ahead of the formation of the V S Achuthanandan government in 2006, Parassala was won by CPM’s R Selvaraj who is the Congress candidate at Neyyattinkara this time. A T George won the seat for the Congress in 2011 while CPM’s C K Hareendran took it back in 2016. Hareendran is the CPM candidate this time too.
Aranmula constituency in Pathanamthitta district has shown bellwether characteristics from 1991 when NDP candidate R Ramachandran Nair won the seat for the UDF. Poet Kadammanitta Ramakrishnan (LDF), Malethu Saraladevi (Congress), K C Rajagopalan (CPM), K Sivadasan Nair (Congress) and Veena George (CPM) won from the constituency to be in the treasury benches in 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016 respectively. Veena and Sivadasan are fighting from Aranmula this time.In neighbouring Tamil Nadu, Madurai Central assembly constituency had shown bellwether characteristics till the last elections when a DMK candidate won the seat, but ended up in the Opposition.
Poll pointer
From the 1982 elections, Ollur has elected the representative of the front which would eventually come to power
Similarities with Ollur
Parassala’s behaviour is similar to Ollur, except for 1996 when Congress rebel N Sundaran Nadar won the seat as an independent