THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: For the BJP state leadership, the gradual increase in vote share had always been a safe excuse for its failure to win the projected number of seats in successive elections. However, the dip in the NDA’s overall vote share in the just concluded assembly election has deprived the state unit of credible reasons to convince the central leadership which would soon take a detailed stock of the election results.
The vote share of the BJP and its allies, which was 6.03% in the 2011 assembly election, jumped to 10.81 % in 2014 Lok Sabha polls. It then saw a considerable rise to 14.96% in the previous assembly election and then to 15.54% in the 2019 Lok Sabha poll. In the local body election held last year, the figure dipped slightly to 15.02%.
In the just held assembly election, BJP alone had recorded a vote share of 11.33%. If the votes of BJP’s allies are also taken into account, the NDA has provisional vote share of 12.4%, denoting a dip of over 2.5% compared to the previous assembly election. “This is surely a setback as we had projected our vote share to grow at least to 20% in this election,” admitted a senior party leader. What worried the BJP more was the whopping 12% erosion of votes in its stronghold Nemom when compared to the previous assembly poll.
Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan had claimed that the BJP’s vote share suffered a dip in around 90 of the 140 constituencies. He also went on to allege that BJP’s vote erosion contributed to UDF’s win in many seats.
The runner-up seats
However, the BJP managed to emerge runner-up in nine constituencies this time. Interestingly, the party had clinched the second spot in seven of these seats in the previous assembly election as well.
Among the seats where the BJP emerged runner-up this time, the party was able to increase its vote share in Palakkad (+6.26%), Attingal (+5.94%), Chathannur (+5.69%), Manjeshwar (+2%) and Malampuzha (+1.78%) when compared to the previous assembly election.
Among its other key seats, the saffron party suffered vote erosion in Kasaragod (-3.89%) Vattiyoorkavu (-3.1%) and Kazhakkoottam (-2.84%) compared to the 2016 assembly election. Ironically, a number of BJP heavyweights had campaigned in some of these seats in the run-up to the election.