THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Contrary to the expectation that the Covid spread would soon fade away, several countries are witnessing another sharp rise in cases. As a result, several European and Asian countries have issued fresh containment measures to tackle the surge.
This comes at a time when scientists thought that the viral infection that began almost two years ago is nearing an endemic stage (restricted to particular geographies) from being a pandemic (surges not confined to any particular geography). This causes concern because a similar trajectory of virus that spread havoc in everyone’s life is still afresh in memory of people.
The onset of winter, which is considered conducive for virus transmission, presence of large groups of unvaccinated people, breakthrough infections among fully vaccinated, and age, gender and genetic factors are being considered as possible explanations for the new surges.
Nevertheless, a similar situation in countries such as Singapore, which has gained immunity through vaccination, is a warning signal for a state like Kerala, according to health experts. According to them, the build-up signals yet another wave in the offing and January-February period is the time to watch out for.
Surges in other parts of the world have happened at a time the state has seen a steady decline in Covid cases from the peak in May. The number of people vaccinated has also increased during the period, reducing the risk of mortality and morbidity. However, health experts have pointed out the wearing effectiveness of vaccines in preventing infection and complacency in following Covid protocol could pave the way for the next surge.
“It is almost certain that we will face another wave of infection, although it is not possible to predict the exact time. It has been found that six-eight months is about the longest gap possible between waves, even in highly vaccinated nations. So, we will likely be seeing the next wave at the turn of the year,” said Dr Rajeev Jayadevan, vice-chairman of research cell, Indian Medical Association (IMA), Kerala.
“Fatalities will be fewer as compared to the previous wave, because of the protective effect of vaccination and extensive spread of natural infection. Having said that, older people will be at higher risk of severe outcomes than the younger ones. Severe outcomes will be substantially less common among the fully vaccinated population,” he added.
Dr A Fathahudeen, head of the department of pulmonary and critical care and nodal officer for Covid in Ernakulam Government Medical College Hospital, said the state would be facing another wave in January-February. “If we see more people infected with the new variant of Delta (AY.4.2), then it is more damaging, although the vaccine provides a baseline protection,” he said.
The pandemic is likely to cause maximum damage in large pockets of unvaccinated people. Although many people have received vaccines, approximately 180 million of India’s 940 million adults are yet to receive a single dose.
The gains made by the state in terms of vaccination would come in handy in tackling the next wave. However, the surges witnessed by other countries that have gained immunity through vaccination point to the need to up the vigil.
“The vaccine’s ability to stop infection declines after the initial few months. Though the percentage of severe outcomes in vaccinated people is small, the number of deaths will go up simultaneously with the number of cases. Our goal should be to reduce the number of deaths through all measures, including double vaccination and other pandemic precautions,” said Dr Rajeev.
However, not all agree that Covid would pose a major threat in the near future. “ The surges seen in other countries should be closely monitored. The chance of another wave is possible when we have another virus variant more efficient in spreading than Delta.
The immunity developed in the country through natural infection of Delta is stronger compared to the vaccine-induced immunity in other parts of the world,” said Dr Anish T S, a member of the Covid management committee and assistant professor at the department of community medicine, Thiruvananthapuram Government Medical College Hospital.
