THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: It seems the monsoon will give the state a miss in June. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that it’s unlikely to pick up in July as well. Weather experts predict the state is staring at its highest rainfall deficit in four years.
The state has registered a rainfall deficit of 60.75% in the first 10 days of monsoon that ended on Friday, and with no sign of the wind strengthening, it looks the monsoon has bypassed Kerala and moved towards Sri Lanka, say weather experts. Despite the forecast, isolated showers over the past two days have raised hopes of a monsoon revival. However, weather experts say it’s only a temporary phenomenon.
The monsoon pattern in the state has witnessed changes over the past one decade. Gone are the days when June and July would get maximum monsoon showers. Except for an aberration in 2018, when the state received surplus rainfall in June, the deficit is increasing.
‘2 weeks intense rain can compensate for deficit’
The state received only 71.5mm rainfall between June 1 and 10 when the historical average is 182.2mm. The current weather pattern suggests that it would be unlikely to meet the average rainfall for June (643 mm), experts say. “The rainfall deficit is trending to be the largest the state has seen,” says Abhilash S, director of Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research (ACARR) and associate professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences at CUSAT.
“However, the deficit for two months could be compensated if it rains intensely for two weeks.” Kerala is the entry point for the Southwest monsoon in the mainland of India. The IMD announced the onset of monsoon on May 29, three days ahead of the normal onset date of June 1. The announcement was criticised by weather experts and other weather agencies for not being scientific enough as the criteria for the onset were not met. Rajeevan Erikkulam, meteorologist with the Kerala State Disaster
Management Authority, says that the conditions favourable for strengthening the monsoon were further delayed.
“The weather conditions such as Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), an oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon which affects weather activities across the globe, was expected to be in a favourable phase by the second week of June. But the transition has been further delayed. At present, there is no chance for a major activation required for a monsoon,” he says.
During May, the state received excess rainfall as pre-monsoon showers aided by cyclones and cyclonic circulations. Such weather changes before its onset are also cited as reasons for a weak monsoon.”It has seen that the presence of cyclones before monsoon period would disrupt the monsoon pattern,”says Centre for Water Resources Development and Management hydrology and climatology scientist C P Priju.
June 1-June 10
Rainfall: 71.5mm
Deficit: 60.75%
Average rainfall in June: 643mm
Daily average rainfall in normal monsoon: 20mm
Daily average this year: 4-6mm