More rain forecast, but not enough to even make up for June deficit

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has declared yellow alerts in all districts, except Thiruvananthapuram and Kollam, for Saturday.
(Photo | PTI)
(Photo | PTI)

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: After days of dry spell, the conditions in Kerala have once again become favourable for monsoon rain. The changed weather, from Friday, is expected to bring rain across the state, although experts say it will only last for two to three days. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has declared yellow alerts in all districts, except Thiruvananthapuram and Kollam, for Saturday.

The yellow alert will continue for most of the northern and central districts, with the exception of Palakkad, till June 28. Yellow alert signifies isolated heavy rain. The current pattern is likely to bring more rain in the northern districts, the forecast says. It also predicts more rain by the end of June due to the strengthening of wind.

A major factor that resulted in the recent rain, according to weather experts, is the favourable phase of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), an oceanicatmospheric phenomenon that could enhance or suppress the monsoon, over the Arabian Sea. “The MJO is characterised by a group of clouds, the movement of which affects the weather pattern and typically recurs every 30 to 60 days.

We are experiencing rain due to MJO in phase 2,” said Rajeevan Erikkulam, a meteorologist with the Kerala State Disaster Management Authority. “It will turn into phase 3 over the Bay of Bengal by June 28 and that will bring more rain. But at the moment, phase 3 appears to be weak,” he added.

Abhilash S, director of the Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research, said the effect of MJO would last only for two to three days, followed by a dry spell. “There will be widespread rain in the state during this period. But in places north of Mangaluru, rain will extend to additional days,” he said.

The recent showers have helped reduce the deficit in June. However, the large gap is unlikely to be compensated even if it rains in the coming days, experts point out.

2022 (June 1-June 24)

Rainfall: 220.8 mm

Deficit: 57%

Average rainfall in June: 643 mm

Yellow alert on Saturday: All districts except Thiruvananthapuram and Kollam

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