Northeast monsoon set to start, above normal rainfall predicted in Kerala

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM:  The state is likely to witness the end of short dry spell and brace for this year’s northeast monsoon season from Saturday. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced the official forecast of monsoon from Saturday. The season starting on the Andhra-Tamil Nadu coast is expected to bring rain in Kerala from the next day. It is likely to be fairly widespread light rainfall to isolated heavy spells to begin with. However, weather experts predict that this year the state would get a repeat of the fairly good rainfall it received last year.

The IMD in its long-range forecast predicted that a normal to above normal rainfall (88-112% of long period average) is likely over most parts of the country including Kerala during the northeast monsoon season. The state received a record rainfall of 109% excess rainfall resulting in floods and landslides during the period last year. The northeast monsoon period is calculated between October to December. The state received heavy rainfall even before the official declaration last year. This year the onset of monsoon has been delayed due to the presence of cyclone Sitrang, according to Skymet weather agency. The delay was the most in the last four years. In October, the state received a rainfall deficit of 27% compared to the average rainfall of 278.7 mm.

“The continued presence of La Nina, an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that reduces rainfall, is keenly watched out. Last year we received record rainfall despite the presence of La Nina. Though the seasons began with a scanty rainfall, the situation is likely to change when the monsoon becomes active in the days to come. There is likely to be rainfall on most days during the rest of the season,” said Rajeevan Erikkulam, meteorologist with the Kerala State Disaster Management Authority.

The northeast monsoon is characterised by rains in the afternoon with thunderstorms and lightning. While the rainfall in October had some of the characteristics of northeast monsoon, the IMD follows a set of parameters to officially declare the monsoon season. It is also marked by the presence of cyclones. The IMD announced the retreat of southwest monsoon from the country on October 23 against a normal withdrawal date of October 15. The northeast monsoon that brings 30% of rainfall is confined to parts of southern peninsular India- Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Yanam, Kerala , Mahe, south interior Karnataka and Lakshadweep.