Demographic deficit: State facing a second-gen crisis, says FM; Experts see birth rate dropping

Finance Minister K N Balagopal presenting the state budget at the legislative assembly in Thiruvananthapuram on Friday (Photo | B P Deepu, EPS)
Finance Minister K N Balagopal presenting the state budget at the legislative assembly in Thiruvananthapuram on Friday (Photo | B P Deepu, EPS)

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Kerala is facing second-generation developmental issues, Finance Minister KN Balagopal said in his budget speech. Apart from the rising elderly population, like many developed countries, the state’s birth rate is decreasing sharply. Presenting the budget, the minister assured that steps will be taken to scientifically study the unique situation and formulate policies for the future.

Kerala is witnessing a change in its demographic profile.

“According to the figures for 2021, 16.50 per cent of the population are above 60 years. It is estimated that this will exceed 20 per cent by 2031. At the same time, the birth rate has been decreasing. Though an average of 6.5 lakhs and 5.3 lakh children were born in the 1980s and 1990s respectively, the figures came down to 4.6 lakhs in 2021. Demographers estimate that the birth rate will drop to 3.6 lakhs by 2031. That is, a structural change will be visible in the ratio between the new generation, senior citizens and the workforce,” the budget said.

The budget also warned that the potential support ratio may decrease from 4.5 to 3.4 and then to 2.3. Kerala may become a state with the highest dependency-population ratio. The budget also points to the widespread trend of youth going abroad for employment and education and settling there.

“As a result, there is a decrease in the number of capable youths for employment in the state. Kerala also faces second-generation developmental issues which include changes in demographic structure and rehabilitation of NRKs. Owing to these factors, the Centre is denying Kerala its due share. There is a situation in which the human development we have achieved becomes our disqualification. Kerala has demanded the Union government to realise the unique issues being faced by the state and give due consideration to it in Centrally sponsored schemes,” the budget stated.

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