Monsoon may buck trend, more rain likely in 1st half
The India Meteorological Department (IMD), which has predicted normal monsoon this year, had declared yellow alerts in all southern districts up to Ernakulam and also in Malappuram on Wednesday.
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Bucking the trend seen since 2019, the first two months of the southwest monsoon in Kerala are likely to see more rain compared to the second half this year.
Rajeevan Erikkulam, a meteorologist with the Kerala State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA), said, “We have been seeing low rainfall in June-July period and more in August-September period since 2019. This trend is likely to be reversed this time.”
The India Meteorological Department (IMD), which has predicted normal monsoon this year, had declared yellow alerts in all southern districts up to Ernakulam and also in Malappuram on Wednesday. The districts are likely to get isolated heavy rainfall between 65 and 115 mm. The situation is likely to be the same on June 4.
Meanwhile, the recent pick-up in rain has raised hopes of a reversal of fortune in the state, which registered a staggering 34% pre-monsoon rain deficit in the crucial March-May period.
Rain with thunderstorm to continue
Rajeevan said the summer rain accompanied by thunder and lightning will continue for now. “In the coming days, the rain will shift from nighttime to daytime. Thunder and lightning will stop with the onset of monsoon,” said Rajeevan.
At present, only the Bay of Bengal branch of the monsoon is active. Activity of the Arabian Sea branch is slow. Weather experts opined that the weather systems hindering the advancement of monsoons will weaken in the coming days.
Global models have predicted the influence of El Nino in the latter half of the four-month monsoon season.
The IMD, on the other hand, expects a normal monsoon season overall due to a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and a lower snow cover over the northern hemisphere to counter El Nino conditions.